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Live/Forecast engine/September 30, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

September 30, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 24 airfields, was level at 2,446 and further at 37. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,373 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on September 30, 2026: closer at 24, level at 2,312, further at 37; the 70 panel airports ringed

24 of 2,507 airfields closer than the NBM39 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more11
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F13
  3. level, within 0.1 F2,446
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F25
  5. further by 0.5 F or more12

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 24 of 70, level at 9 and further at 37. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,369 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on September 30, 2026: closer at 25, level at 2,306, further at 38; the 70 panel airports ringed

25 of 2,503 airfields closer than the NBM40 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more9
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F16
  3. level, within 0.1 F2,440
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F14
  5. further by 0.5 F or more24

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 25 of 70, level at 7 and further at 38. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,366 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on September 30, 2026: closer at 35, level at 2,308, further at 23; the 70 panel airports ringed

35 of 2,508 airfields closer than the NBM60 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more19
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph16
  3. level, within 0.1 mph2,450
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph15
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more8

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 35 of 70, level at 12 and further at 23. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,025 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on September 30, 2026: closer at 40, level at 1,966, further at 19; the 70 panel airports ringed

40 of 2,141 airfields closer than the NBM68 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more27
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points13
  3. level, within 1 point2,082
  4. further by 1 to 5 points13
  5. further by 5 points or more6

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 40 of 69, level at 10 and further at 19. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on September 30, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.1 F on average, and within 5 F in 94 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.7 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
234,404
Readings checked
115,827
Readings that failed
191
Misses over 10 F
364

Who came closest on September 30, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1Storm StationOn this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it+0.4%Temperature2.1 FDew point2.2 FWind2.4 mphSky cover19.1 points
  2. 2NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.0 FDew point1.9 FWind2.6 mphSky cover22.5 points
  3. 3Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after0.0%Temperature2.0 FDew point1.9 FWind2.6 mphSky cover22.5 points
  4. 4National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database-1.6%Temperature2.1 FDew point1.9 FWind2.6 mphSky cover21.8 points
  5. 5NOAA GFS with HRRRNOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast-27.6%Temperature2.4 FDew point3.2 FWind2.8 mphSky cover24.7 points

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, September 30, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports; by hours ahead from October 3-----3%-----17.7%----+7.1%----+15%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports; by hours ahead from October 3-----5.3%-----2.3%-----1.9%----+3.1%
NOAA GFS with HRRRat the 70 airports; by hours ahead from October 3-----19.6%-----73.7%-----7.1%-----10%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are September 30, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of September 30, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked115,827 readings, 191 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day1,718,009 forecast hoursEach large miss explained364 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned36,469 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 115,827 readings, 191 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 1,718,009 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 364 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 36,469 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.09 F, the NBM 2.03 FBehind today by 0.06 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.18 F, the NBM 1.85 FBehind today by 0.33 F
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.41 mph, the NBM 2.59 mphAhead today by 0.18 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 19.10 points, the NBM 22.49 pointsAhead today by 3.38 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station -, the NBM -; off by - categories, the NBM -Not yet scored
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it53 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 53Too narrow today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.46 against 0.44, 1 to 6 hours aheadAhead today by 0.02
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.28 against 0.35 at 0.01 inchBehind today by 0.07
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forward-Not yet scored

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

September 30, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, September 30, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRNBMCorrectionStorm StationNWS forecast
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, September 30, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRNWS forecastNBMCorrectionStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, September 30, 202602461 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRStorm StationNBMCorrectionNWS forecast
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, September 30, 20260102030401 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNBMCorrectionGFS with HRRRNWS forecastStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBMevenStorm Station0.7 F coolNWS forecast0.7 F coolGFS with HRRR0.6 F coolCorrectioneven

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.6 mph strongStorm Station0.1 mph strongNWS forecast0.7 mph strongGFS with HRRR0.4 mph lightCorrection0.6 mph strong

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBMevenStorm Station1.0 F dryNWS forecastevenGFS with HRRR1.9 F dryCorrectioneven

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM16.0 points clearStorm Station8.3 points clearNWS forecast16.0 points clearGFS with HRRR0.7 points clearCorrection16.0 points clear

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KGUL-0.2 F0.2 F cool54-
KPRO Perry Municipal AirportIA0.4 F0.1 F cool87-
PAGN Angoon Seaplane BaseAK0.4 F0.1 F cool100-
KAIO Atlantic Municipal AirportIA0.5 F0.2 F cool87-
PHKO Ellison Onizuka Kona International Airport at KeāholeHI0.5 F0.2 F warm100-
KRYW Lago Vista Texas Rusty Allen AirportTX0.5 F0.3 F warm29-
PAAK Atka AirportAK0.6 F0.3 F cool100-
KEBS Webster City Municipal AirportIA0.6 F0.3 F cool87-
PALU Cape Lisburne LRRS AirportAK0.6 F0.1 F cool96-
PASY Eareckson Air StationAK0.6 Feven63-
KCSQ Creston Municipal AirportIA0.6 F0.2 F warm87-
PAPR Prospect Creek AirportAK0.6 F0.4 F cool17-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KGVW-12.8 F12.8 F cool100the forecast, at this station 18
KEED Needles AirportCA8.0 F8.0 F warm17-
KTVL Lake Tahoe AirportCA8.0 F8.0 F warm100the forecast, at this station 3
KMZJ Pinal AirparkAZ7.6 F7.6 F cool100the forecast, at this station 4
KIFP Laughlin Bullhead International AirportAZ7.5 F7.5 F warm84the forecast, at this station 1, cannot be told 1
KS34 Plains AirportMT7.3 F7.3 F cool100cannot be told 7
KD57 Glen Ullin Regional AirportND7.0 F3.4 F warm96the forecast, at this station 3
KBTM Bert Mooney AirportMT6.6 F6.5 F cool100the forecast, at this station 7
K1CM-6.3 F2.5 F cool96-
PAKU Ugnu-Kuparuk AirportAK6.2 F3.5 F warm67cannot be told 1
KC99-6.2 F6.2 F warm54the forecast, at this station 2
K7S0 Ronan AirportMT6.1 F5.9 F cool100the forecast, at this station 4

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station18The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area19Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station254Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told73Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of September 30, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
PAKU19 UTC25 F-40.0 F65.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KBBB16 UTC66 F33.8 F32.2 F high69.3 F4The station
PATA14 UTC27 F-4.0 F31.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KRBD21 UTC95 F78.1 F16.9 F high85.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KJWY21 UTC94 F77.5 F16.5 F high84.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KJWY22 UTC93 F76.6 F16.4 F high81.6 F4The forecast, across the area
K1MM12 UTC52 F68.2 F16.2 F low58.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW02 UTC68 F84.2 F16.2 F low82.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW03 UTC68 F84.2 F16.2 F low81.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW04 UTC68 F84.2 F16.2 F low81.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW05 UTC68 F84.2 F16.2 F low81.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW06 UTC68 F84.2 F16.2 F low81.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW07 UTC68 F84.2 F16.2 F low79.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KRBD22 UTC94 F78.1 F15.9 F high81.9 F4The forecast, across the area
KC9901 UTC55 F39.2 F15.8 F high41.1 F1The forecast, at this station
K3U313 UTC43 F58.5 F15.5 F low52.0 F1Cannot be told
KINJ20 UTC93 F77.7 F15.3 F high86.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW01 UTC69 F84.2 F15.2 F low83.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW08 UTC69 F84.2 F15.2 F low79.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW09 UTC69 F84.2 F15.2 F low78.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW10 UTC69 F84.2 F15.2 F low79.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW11 UTC69 F84.2 F15.2 F low79.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW12 UTC69 F84.2 F15.2 F low78.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW13 UTC69 F84.2 F15.2 F low79.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KBAN15 UTC44 F28.9 F15.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KBTM11 UTC42 F57.0 F15.0 F low50.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KC9900 UTC56 F41.0 F15.0 F high41.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KDTO21 UTC92 F77.0 F15.0 F high81.9 F3The forecast, across the area
KF0023 UTC92 F77.0 F15.0 F high80.8 F5The forecast, across the area
KGVW14 UTC71 F86.0 F15.0 F low83.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KSBA04 UTC69 F84.0 F15.0 F low63.3 F4The station
KTKI22 UTC92 F77.0 F15.0 F high80.8 F4The forecast, across the area
KTSP13 UTC56 F41.0 F15.0 F high49.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KTSP14 UTC56 F41.0 F15.0 F high49.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KSBA06 UTC68 F82.9 F14.9 F low62.1 F6The station
KTRL23 UTC93 F78.1 F14.9 F high82.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KSRB07 UTC63 F48.2 F14.8 F high56.4 F19The forecast, at this station
K3U312 UTC43 F57.6 F14.6 F low52.0 F6Cannot be told
KGPM21 UTC95 F80.6 F14.4 F high85.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KINJ21 UTC93 F78.8 F14.2 F high85.2 F3The forecast, at this station
KS3409 UTC52 F66.2 F14.2 F low-3Cannot be told
KSRB03 UTC66 F51.8 F14.2 F high61.0 F15The forecast, at this station
KGPM22 UTC94 F79.9 F14.1 F high82.4 F4The forecast, across the area
KLRD18 UTC97 F82.9 F14.1 F high-6Cannot be told
KBTM12 UTC41 F55.0 F14.0 F low49.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KL3508 UTC45 F59.0 F14.0 F low-2Cannot be told
KSEZ23 UTC73 F59.0 F14.0 F high66.0 F11The forecast, at this station
KTVL15 UTC48 F34.0 F14.0 F high40.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KGKY21 UTC94 F80.1 F13.9 F high85.2 F3The forecast, at this station
K1MM20 UTC59 F45.1 F13.9 F high55.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KBAN16 UTC56 F42.1 F13.9 F high-4Cannot be told
KL3509 UTC44 F57.6 F13.6 F low-3Cannot be told
KSRB01 UTC69 F55.4 F13.6 F high65.2 F13The forecast, at this station
KFWS21 UTC94 F80.6 F13.4 F high82.0 F3The forecast, across the area
KHQZ22 UTC94 F80.6 F13.4 F high82.4 F4The forecast, across the area
KS3411 UTC51 F64.4 F13.4 F low-5Cannot be told
KS3412 UTC51 F64.4 F13.4 F low-6Cannot be told
KGVW00 UTC71 F84.2 F13.2 F low84.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KSRB04 UTC65 F51.8 F13.2 F high59.2 F16The forecast, at this station
KTSP12 UTC56 F42.8 F13.2 F high51.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KTVL14 UTC44 F30.9 F13.1 F high36.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KACT19 UTC92 F79.0 F13.0 F high89.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KBTM09 UTC44 F57.0 F13.0 F low52.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KCAO23 UTC67 F54.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KEKN15 UTC70 F57.0 F13.0 F high64.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW15 UTC73 F86.0 F13.0 F low86.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KL3507 UTC46 F59.0 F13.0 F low-1Cannot be told
KLVM12 UTC46 F59.0 F13.0 F low53.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KPXE02 UTC72 F59.0 F13.0 F high65.4 F14The forecast, at this station
KSBA05 UTC68 F81.0 F13.0 F low62.5 F5The station
KSEZ22 UTC72 F59.0 F13.0 F high66.5 F10The forecast, at this station
KSRB00 UTC72 F59.0 F13.0 F high69.3 F12The station
KSRB06 UTC63 F50.0 F13.0 F high55.6 F18The forecast, at this station
KTVL13 UTC45 F32.0 F13.0 F high35.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KIFP02 UTC81 F68.0 F13.0 F high73.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KDFW20 UTC93 F80.1 F12.9 F high87.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KDFW22 UTC93 F80.1 F12.9 F high81.7 F4The forecast, across the area
KBTM10 UTC43 F55.9 F12.9 F low52.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KEKQ05 UTC64 F51.1 F12.9 F high57.9 F17The forecast, at this station
KPSK15 UTC69 F56.1 F12.9 F high67.6 F3The station
K10U14 UTC43 F30.2 F12.8 F high-2Cannot be told
KEBG18 UTC97 F84.2 F12.8 F high94.9 F6The station
KPXE03 UTC70 F57.2 F12.8 F high63.3 F15The forecast, at this station
KCPF14 UTC68 F55.4 F12.6 F high64.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KD5713 UTC50 F37.4 F12.6 F high47.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KPXE05 UTC68 F55.4 F12.6 F high61.1 F17The forecast, at this station
K3U308 UTC46 F58.5 F12.5 F low54.0 F2Cannot be told
KL3506 UTC47 F59.5 F12.5 F low-6Cannot be told
KADS22 UTC93 F80.6 F12.4 F high80.7 F4The forecast, across the area
KF0022 UTC93 F80.6 F12.4 F high81.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KS3408 UTC52 F64.4 F12.4 F low-2Cannot be told
KS3410 UTC52 F64.4 F12.4 F low-4Cannot be told
KMDH01 UTC70 F82.4 F12.4 F low66.9 F1The station
KPXE00 UTC75 F62.6 F12.4 F high72.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KHVE17 UTC73 F60.8 F12.2 F high-5Cannot be told
KTKX18 UTC90 F102.2 F12.2 F low91.2 F6The station
KHEI09 UTC52 F39.9 F12.1 F high52.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KLKV13 UTC41 F53.1 F12.1 F low-1Cannot be told
KLVM14 UTC48 F60.1 F12.1 F low56.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KBTM13 UTC42 F54.0 F12.0 F low49.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KCRS23 UTC91 F79.0 F12.0 F high84.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KDAL21 UTC93 F81.0 F12.0 F high82.6 F3The forecast, across the area
KDFW21 UTC94 F82.0 F12.0 F high82.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KDLN10 UTC43 F55.0 F12.0 F low50.5 F4Cannot be told
KEKN14 UTC64 F52.0 F12.0 F high59.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KEKQ04 UTC64 F52.0 F12.0 F high58.8 F16The forecast, at this station
KGKY22 UTC93 F81.0 F12.0 F high82.3 F4The forecast, across the area
KGTF18 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high54.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KGWO07 UTC65 F77.0 F12.0 F low-25Cannot be told
KLVM13 UTC47 F59.0 F12.0 F low55.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KLVM15 UTC52 F64.0 F12.0 F low-9Cannot be told
KMZJ19 UTC65 F77.0 F12.0 F low76.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KPGA20 UTC78 F66.0 F12.0 F high-8Cannot be told
KRBD23 UTC91 F79.0 F12.0 F high82.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KRNM13 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high62.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KSEZ21 UTC71 F59.0 F12.0 F high66.5 F9The forecast, at this station
KSRB08 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high55.5 F20The forecast, at this station
KSRB10 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high52.2 F22The forecast, at this station
KSRB11 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high52.5 F23The forecast, at this station
KSRB12 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high53.4 F24The forecast, at this station
KTKI23 UTC91 F79.0 F12.0 F high81.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KU5513 UTC38 F50.0 F12.0 F low45.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KVCB08 UTC75 F63.0 F12.0 F high62.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KAFW22 UTC92 F80.1 F11.9 F high80.8 F4The forecast, across the area
KDAL22 UTC92 F80.1 F11.9 F high81.4 F4The forecast, across the area
KBTM15 UTC46 F57.9 F11.9 F low51.3 F9The forecast, at this station
KBZN13 UTC44 F55.9 F11.9 F low56.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KEKQ06 UTC63 F51.1 F11.9 F high55.5 F18The forecast, at this station
K7S010 UTC49 F60.8 F11.8 F low58.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KD5708 UTC51 F39.2 F11.8 F high48.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KGZS10 UTC60 F48.2 F11.8 F high54.8 F22The forecast, at this station
KGZS11 UTC60 F48.2 F11.8 F high56.0 F23The forecast, at this station
KMZJ21 UTC67 F78.8 F11.8 F low80.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KMZJ22 UTC67 F78.8 F11.8 F low80.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KMZJ23 UTC67 F78.8 F11.8 F low80.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KU5510 UTC40 F51.8 F11.8 F low47.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KIFP04 UTC78 F66.2 F11.8 F high-4Cannot be told
KGLE20 UTC90 F78.3 F11.7 F high86.6 F8The forecast, at this station
KLXY22 UTC91 F79.3 F11.7 F high89.9 F4The forecast, at this station
K7S006 UTC51 F62.6 F11.6 F low57.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KGZS03 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high60.4 F15The forecast, at this station
KSRB02 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high62.7 F14The forecast, at this station
KHVE18 UTC76 F64.4 F11.6 F high-6Cannot be told
KU9619 UTC76 F64.4 F11.6 F high-7Cannot be told
KU9620 UTC78 F66.4 F11.6 F high-8Cannot be told
KVQQ21 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high83.4 F3The station
KU9621 UTC79 F67.5 F11.5 F high-9Cannot be told
KU9622 UTC80 F68.5 F11.5 F high-10Cannot be told
K1MM16 UTC62 F73.4 F11.4 F low64.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KS3407 UTC53 F64.4 F11.4 F low-1Cannot be told
KGZS04 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high58.2 F16The forecast, at this station
KLUG05 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high57.5 F17The forecast, at this station
KLWB15 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high66.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KRNC04 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high57.5 F16The forecast, at this station
K3U311 UTC44 F55.2 F11.2 F low52.6 F5Cannot be told
KGPM20 UTC94 F82.8 F11.2 F high87.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KGZS06 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high56.9 F18The forecast, at this station
KM2113 UTC68 F56.8 F11.2 F high63.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KPXE01 UTC72 F60.8 F11.2 F high67.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KRNC07 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high56.6 F19The forecast, at this station
KRNC08 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high56.2 F20The forecast, at this station
KS3405 UTC55 F66.2 F11.2 F low-5Cannot be told
K1MM19 UTC62 F50.9 F11.1 F high57.6 F7The forecast, at this station
K3U314 UTC45 F56.1 F11.1 F low54.7 F2Cannot be told
KBTM14 UTC42 F53.1 F11.1 F low51.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KMSO13 UTC49 F60.1 F11.1 F low58.4 F1Cannot be told
KPGA19 UTC76 F64.9 F11.1 F high-7Cannot be told
KVCB07 UTC76 F64.9 F11.1 F high65.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KXBP20 UTC89 F77.9 F11.1 F high83.6 F2The forecast, at this station
K2M813 UTC72 F61.0 F11.0 F high70.4 F1The forecast, at this station
K7S011 UTC48 F59.0 F11.0 F low58.3 F17The forecast, at this station
K7S012 UTC48 F59.0 F11.0 F low59.4 F12The forecast, at this station
KAFW21 UTC93 F82.0 F11.0 F high82.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KAJO12 UTC66 F55.0 F11.0 F high65.2 F18The station
KANQ04 UTC61 F50.0 F11.0 F high57.7 F16The forecast, at this station
KBAN13 UTC38 F27.0 F11.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KBAN14 UTC39 F28.0 F11.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KBAN17 UTC65 F54.0 F11.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KCPR05 UTC54 F43.0 F11.0 F high-23Cannot be told
KD0710 UTC53 F64.0 F11.0 F low-4Cannot be told
KD5707 UTC52 F41.0 F11.0 F high50.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KDLN09 UTC43 F54.0 F11.0 F low50.5 F15Cannot be told
KDUA23 UTC88 F77.0 F11.0 F high78.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KEKQ01 UTC68 F57.0 F11.0 F high64.9 F13The forecast, at this station
KEKQ02 UTC66 F55.0 F11.0 F high62.1 F14The forecast, at this station
KEKQ03 UTC65 F54.0 F11.0 F high60.6 F15The forecast, at this station
KEKQ07 UTC63 F52.0 F11.0 F high55.2 F19The forecast, at this station
KEKQ12 UTC63 F52.0 F11.0 F high55.3 F24The forecast, at this station
KEKS19 UTC57 F68.0 F11.0 F low67.3 F19The forecast, at this station
KF4623 UTC92 F81.0 F11.0 F high81.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KGCC02 UTC63 F52.0 F11.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KGCC07 UTC54 F43.0 F11.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KGIC12 UTC48 F59.0 F11.0 F low-6Cannot be told
KGTF17 UTC63 F52.0 F11.0 F high54.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KGTF19 UTC61 F50.0 F11.0 F high53.4 F7The forecast, at this station
KGVW16 UTC75 F86.0 F11.0 F low89.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW17 UTC75 F86.0 F11.0 F low89.5 F23The forecast, at this station
KGYI23 UTC88 F77.0 F11.0 F high78.7 F5The forecast, across the area
KGZS08 UTC61 F50.0 F11.0 F high55.4 F20The forecast, at this station
KHLN14 UTC48 F59.0 F11.0 F low60.0 F20The forecast, across the area

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, September 30, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.22.32.32.42.3+0.053%234,404
Storm Station correction2.22.32.32.42.3+0.053%234,404
National Weather Service forecast2.02.12.12.32.1-0.7-6,664
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.22.42.52.72.4-0.6-6,680
Storm Station lead1.92.02.12.32.1-0.7-6,664

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.02.12.12.22.1-0.063%233,457
Storm Station correction2.02.12.12.22.1-0.063%233,457
National Weather Service forecast1.81.81.92.11.9-0.0-6,659
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.63.23.43.73.2-1.9-6,675
Storm Station lead1.82.22.32.52.2-1.0-6,659

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.52.52.62.62.5+0.654%233,579
Storm Station correction2.52.52.62.62.5+0.654%233,579
National Weather Service forecast2.62.62.72.72.6+0.7-6,659
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.72.82.82.82.8-0.4-6,675
Storm Station lead2.42.42.52.42.4+0.1-6,659

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)25.626.627.127.226.6-16.045%119,305
Storm Station correction25.626.627.127.226.6-16.045%119,305
National Weather Service forecast20.821.222.223.021.8-16.0-5,503
NOAA GFS with HRRR24.324.924.924.924.7-0.7-5,519
Storm Station lead18.918.719.219.619.1-8.3-5,503

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0380.0390.0410.0430.440.350.16
NOAA GFS with HRRR0.0350.0350.0340.0370.450.290.06
Storm Station lead0.0340.0360.0340.0370.460.280.10

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
433
Where snow fell or was forecast
10
Mean miss, depth
1.9 in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in1540.09
3 in012-0.00
6 in000-

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.