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Live/Forecast engine/October 3, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

October 3, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 1,059 airfields, was level at 364 and further at 1,072. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,362 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on October 3, 2026: closer at 993, level at 349, further at 1,020; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,059 of 2,495 airfields closer than the NBM50 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more502
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F557
  3. level, within 0.1 F364
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F555
  5. further by 0.5 F or more517

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, 6 of its 8 forecasts were still the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, the rest the engine’s own): closer at 25 of 70, level at 9 and further at 36. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,361 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on October 3, 2026: closer at 957, level at 446, further at 958; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,006 of 2,494 airfields closer than the NBM50 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more464
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F542
  3. level, within 0.1 F474
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F618
  5. further by 0.5 F or more396

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, 6 of its 8 forecasts were still the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, the rest the engine’s own): closer at 19 of 70, level at 10 and further at 41. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,364 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on October 3, 2026: closer at 818, level at 500, further at 1,046; the 70 panel airports ringed

877 of 2,503 airfields closer than the NBM44 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more317
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph560
  3. level, within 0.1 mph522
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph728
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more376

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, 6 of its 8 forecasts were still the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, the rest the engine’s own): closer at 37 of 70, level at 13 and further at 20. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 1,831 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on October 3, 2026: closer at 682, level at 614, further at 535; the 70 panel airports ringed

717 of 1,929 airfields closer than the NBM55 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more349
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points368
  3. level, within 1 point635
  4. further by 1 to 5 points291
  5. further by 5 points or more286

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, 6 of its 8 forecasts were still the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, the rest the engine’s own): closer at 23 of 66, level at 23 and further at 20. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on October 3, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.3 F on average, and within 5 F in 92 of every 100 hours. It ran 1.1 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
242,926
Readings checked
117,436
Readings that failed
246
Misses over 10 F
505

Who came closest on October 3, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after+3.6%Temperature2.1 FDew point2.1 FWind2.4 mphSky cover17.6 points
  2. 2NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.3 FDew point2.0 FWind2.4 mphSky cover19.6 points
  3. 3Storm StationOn this day, 6 of its 8 forecasts were still the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, the rest the engine’s own-1.9%Temperature2.3 FDew point2.3 FWind2.3 mphSky cover19.4 points
  4. 4National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database-3.3%Temperature2.4 FDew point2.1 FWind2.5 mphSky cover19.6 points
  5. 5NOAA GFS with HRRRNOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast-27.1%Temperature2.7 FDew point3.1 FWind2.7 mphSky cover25.2 points

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, October 3, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports-0.9%-0.9%-4%-5.9%-3.2%-1.5%-8.5%-15.1%-18.2%-11.3%+7.5%+5.4%+6.2%+5.3%+5.9%+1.1%+0.3%+0.1%+2.8%+1.1%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports-5.1%-3.5%-7.1%-5.9%-5.5%-5.2%-6%-4.9%-6.2%-5.4%-1.7%-2.1%-2.9%-2.9%-2.5%+2.3%+0.5%-1.9%-0.2%+0.1%
NOAA GFS with HRRRat the 70 airports-12%-13.6%-20.5%-25.7%-18.5%-35.1%-44.8%-54.6%-65.1%-50.8%-11.3%-11.7%-9.5%-8.6%-10.3%-28.7%-26.2%-29.6%-29.9%-28.7%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield-1.3%+0.4%+1.2%+1.6%+0.4%+0.9%+2.2%+2.7%+3.1%+1.8%-1.2%-1.2%-1.6%-2%-1.6%+0.7%+0.8%+0.9%+1%+0.9%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 3, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of October 3, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked117,436 readings, 246 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day2,652,350 forecast hoursEach large miss explained505 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned35,902 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 117,436 readings, 246 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 2,652,350 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 505 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 35,902 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.34 F, the NBM 2.27 FBehind today by 0.07 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.26 F, the NBM 2.03 FBehind today by 0.23 F
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.27 mph, the NBM 2.41 mphAhead today by 0.14 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 19.38 points, the NBM 19.60 pointsAhead today by 0.22 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station -, the NBM -; off by - categories, the NBM -Not yet scored
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it68 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 53On target today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.21 against 0.23, 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.02
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.10 against 0.16 at 0.01 inchBehind today by 0.06
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forward-Not yet scored

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

October 3, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, October 3, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRStorm StationNWS forecastNBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, October 3, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRCorrectionNBMNWS forecastStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, October 3, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, October 3, 20260102030401 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRNBMCorrectionNWS forecastStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.4 F coolStorm Station1.1 F coolNWS forecast1.1 F coolGFS with HRRR1.2 F coolCorrection0.4 F cool

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.3 mph strongStorm Station0.3 mph lightNWS forecast0.2 mph strongGFS with HRRR1.1 mph lightCorrection0.1 mph light

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM0.5 F moistStorm Station0.1 F dryNWS forecast0.5 F moistGFS with HRRR0.7 F dryCorrection0.3 F moist

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM13.3 points clearStorm Station8.3 points clearNWS forecast13.6 points clearGFS with HRRR1.8 points clearCorrection5.4 points clear

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KSQL San Carlos AirportCA0.6 F0.2 F warm42-
KNUW Whidbey Island Naval Air Station (Ault Field)WA0.6 F0.4 F warm70-
KSTF George M Bryan AirportMS0.7 F0.7 F warm13-
PHNG Kaneohe Bay MCAS (Marion E. Carl Field) AirportHI0.7 F0.3 F cool100-
PAGS Gustavus AirportAK0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
PAHN Haines AirportAK0.7 F0.3 F warm100-
PHLI Lihue AirportHI0.7 Feven100-
KTTN Trenton Mercer AirportNJ0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
PGRO-0.7 F0.1 F cool46-
KTOL Eugene F. Kranz Toledo Express AirportOH0.7 F0.4 F cool100-
KBTP Pittsburgh/Butler Regional AirportPA0.8 F0.4 F warm100-
PAGN Angoon Seaplane BaseAK0.8 F0.5 F cool96-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KNSI San Nicolas Island Nolf AirportCA10.6 F10.6 F cool70cannot be told 6
KGVW-8.7 F8.0 F cool100the forecast, at this station 23
KNFG Camp Pendleton MCAS (Munn Field) AirportCA7.4 F1.5 F warm87the forecast, at this station 6, the station 1
K4BM-7.2 F7.2 F cool100the forecast, at this station 2
KTMT Austin AirportNV6.9 F6.6 F warm100cannot be told 5
KNRS Naval Outlying Field Imperial Beach (Ream Field)CA6.8 F2.7 F cool84the forecast, at this station 5
KAVX Catalina AirportCA6.8 F6.8 F cool67the forecast, at this station 2
K1NW-6.7 F1.6 F cool100the forecast, at this station 9
K4A6 Scottsboro Municipal Word FieldAL6.6 F0.9 F cool100the forecast, at this station 1
KAXX Angel Fire AirportNM6.5 F4.0 F warm100cannot be told 3
KGZS Abernathy FieldTN6.3 F2.5 F cool100-
KCPW-6.3 F6.3 F cool100cannot be told 2

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station25The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area17Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station332Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told131Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of October 3, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
KJES12 UTC73 F12.2 F60.8 F high73.7 F6The station
KJES11 UTC73 F19.4 F53.6 F high73.6 F5The station
KJES10 UTC73 F30.2 F42.8 F high73.5 F4The station
KGVW06 UTC50 F84.2 F34.2 F low77.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW07 UTC50 F84.2 F34.2 F low77.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW09 UTC49 F82.4 F33.4 F low76.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW05 UTC51 F84.2 F33.2 F low78.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW12 UTC48 F80.6 F32.6 F low76.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW08 UTC50 F82.4 F32.4 F low76.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW04 UTC52 F84.2 F32.2 F low79.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW10 UTC49 F80.6 F31.6 F low76.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW03 UTC53 F84.2 F31.2 F low79.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW11 UTC48 F78.8 F30.8 F low76.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW02 UTC54 F84.2 F30.2 F low80.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW01 UTC55 F84.2 F29.2 F low80.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW13 UTC51 F78.8 F27.8 F low76.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KJES09 UTC73 F46.4 F26.6 F high73.5 F3The station
KGVW00 UTC58 F84.2 F26.2 F low81.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW14 UTC57 F80.6 F23.6 F low80.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KO2606 UTC77 F55.4 F21.6 F high-6The station
KGVW15 UTC61 F82.4 F21.4 F low82.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KO2607 UTC75 F53.6 F21.4 F high-1Cannot be told
KO2608 UTC74 F53.6 F20.4 F high-2Cannot be told
K1NW17 UTC62 F81.0 F19.0 F low78.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KO2605 UTC78 F59.0 F19.0 F high-5The station
K1NW18 UTC64 F82.8 F18.8 F low79.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KO2609 UTC72 F53.6 F18.4 F high-3Cannot be told
K1NW19 UTC64 F82.0 F18.0 F low78.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW16 UTC65 F82.4 F17.4 F low83.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KO2610 UTC71 F53.6 F17.4 F high-4Cannot be told
K1NW20 UTC64 F81.3 F17.3 F low78.6 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW16 UTC59 F75.9 F16.9 F low75.3 F4The forecast, at this station
K1NW21 UTC63 F79.9 F16.9 F low76.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KAXX15 UTC50 F33.6 F16.4 F high-3Cannot be told
KO2604 UTC79 F62.6 F16.4 F high-4Cannot be told
KMZJ22 UTC77 F93.2 F16.2 F low92.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KMZJ23 UTC77 F93.2 F16.2 F low91.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KAJO11 UTC77 F61.0 F16.0 F high73.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KTVL15 UTC55 F39.0 F16.0 F high49.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KO2611 UTC69 F53.6 F15.4 F high-5Cannot be told
KBAN16 UTC62 F46.9 F15.1 F high-4Cannot be told
KTVL14 UTC53 F37.9 F15.1 F high47.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KNFG09 UTC78 F63.0 F15.0 F high74.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KNFG14 UTC76 F61.0 F15.0 F high73.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KNRS22 UTC89 F104.0 F15.0 F low102.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KNRS23 UTC88 F102.9 F14.9 F low101.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KNFG10 UTC77 F62.1 F14.9 F high74.8 F4The station
KNFG12 UTC77 F62.1 F14.9 F high73.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KMZJ19 UTC73 F87.8 F14.8 F low88.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KO2603 UTC81 F66.2 F14.8 F high-3Cannot be told
K1NW22 UTC63 F77.7 F14.7 F low75.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KMZJ00 UTC75 F89.6 F14.6 F low89.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KMZJ20 UTC75 F89.6 F14.6 F low90.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KTMT09 UTC49 F34.5 F14.5 F high-3Cannot be told
KGVW17 UTC68 F82.4 F14.4 F low83.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KLLR18 UTC68 F82.4 F14.4 F low-6Cannot be told
KMZJ17 UTC68 F82.4 F14.4 F low83.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KMZJ21 UTC77 F91.4 F14.4 F low91.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KEKS14 UTC50 F35.6 F14.4 F high36.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW23 UTC70 F84.2 F14.2 F low86.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KC2418 UTC69 F54.9 F14.1 F high-6Cannot be told
KTVL13 UTC54 F39.9 F14.1 F high48.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KNSI16 UTC73 F87.1 F14.1 F low-4Cannot be told
KAIA13 UTC53 F39.0 F14.0 F high47.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KAJO09 UTC78 F64.0 F14.0 F high74.4 F3The station
KMZJ01 UTC72 F86.0 F14.0 F low86.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KMZJ06 UTC63 F77.0 F14.0 F low78.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KNFG11 UTC77 F63.0 F14.0 F high73.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KNRS21 UTC89 F102.9 F13.9 F low103.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KAJO12 UTC76 F62.1 F13.9 F high72.9 F6The station
KAJO13 UTC76 F62.1 F13.9 F high72.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KAJO14 UTC74 F60.1 F13.9 F high73.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KNFG13 UTC76 F62.1 F13.9 F high72.9 F1The forecast, at this station
PAPN17 UTC38 F24.1 F13.9 F high-5Cannot be told
K1NW15 UTC57 F70.7 F13.7 F low67.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KAXX16 UTC58 F44.4 F13.6 F high-4Cannot be told
KEKS13 UTC51 F37.4 F13.6 F high37.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KOAR11 UTC60 F46.4 F13.6 F high57.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KBIJ20 UTC85 F71.6 F13.4 F high81.3 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW23 UTC61 F74.3 F13.3 F low73.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW22 UTC71 F84.2 F13.2 F low86.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KMZJ18 UTC71 F84.2 F13.2 F low85.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KTSP10 UTC65 F51.8 F13.2 F high59.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KAJO08 UTC80 F66.9 F13.1 F high77.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KNSI00 UTC74 F87.1 F13.1 F low-6Cannot be told
KWVI20 UTC83 F96.1 F13.1 F low86.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KAJO10 UTC77 F64.0 F13.0 F high73.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KBIH05 UTC72 F59.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KC2417 UTC63 F50.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KLGU10 UTC56 F43.0 F13.0 F high59.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KMZJ05 UTC64 F77.0 F13.0 F low79.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KNFG08 UTC77 F64.0 F13.0 F high76.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KNRS19 UTC89 F102.0 F13.0 F low100.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KNRS20 UTC89 F102.0 F13.0 F low102.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KNSI15 UTC71 F84.0 F13.0 F low-3Cannot be told
KTMT17 UTC70 F57.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KTVL12 UTC54 F41.0 F13.0 F high49.9 F6The forecast, at this station
PAIN17 UTC20 F7.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KCWN13 UTC54 F66.9 F12.9 F low49.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KNSI22 UTC79 F91.9 F12.9 F low-4Cannot be told
PAIN16 UTC19 F6.1 F12.9 F high-4Cannot be told
K41U11 UTC53 F40.1 F12.9 F high53.1 F5The forecast, at this station
K41U13 UTC53 F40.1 F12.9 F high52.2 F1The forecast, at this station
K4BM09 UTC39 F51.8 F12.8 F low40.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KOAR08 UTC61 F48.2 F12.8 F high61.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KOAR09 UTC61 F48.2 F12.8 F high61.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KVAF16 UTC84 F96.8 F12.8 F low-4Cannot be told
KC2415 UTC51 F38.5 F12.5 F high-3Cannot be told
KTMT16 UTC62 F49.5 F12.5 F high-4Cannot be told
KBIJ21 UTC84 F71.6 F12.4 F high82.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KCWN12 UTC52 F64.4 F12.4 F low48.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KLLR21 UTC70 F82.4 F12.4 F low-3Cannot be told
KMZJ02 UTC70 F82.4 F12.4 F low83.9 F2The forecast, at this station
PAAD08 UTC12 F-0.4 F12.4 F high-2Cannot be told
KC2416 UTC57 F44.6 F12.4 F high-4Cannot be told
KVVV18 UTC66 F53.6 F12.4 F high60.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KN2416 UTC58 F45.7 F12.3 F high-4Cannot be told
K10U12 UTC46 F33.8 F12.2 F high-6Cannot be told
KBTN18 UTC64 F51.8 F12.2 F high55.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW21 UTC72 F84.2 F12.2 F low87.2 F3The forecast, at this station
PAAD09 UTC12 F-0.2 F12.2 F high-3Cannot be told
PAIM17 UTC19 F6.8 F12.2 F high-5Cannot be told
K41U15 UTC59 F46.9 F12.1 F high59.2 F3The forecast, at this station
PAPM16 UTC41 F28.9 F12.1 F high25.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KOKB13 UTC77 F64.9 F12.1 F high73.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KAAT08 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KAVX16 UTC79 F91.0 F12.0 F low81.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KBAN14 UTC48 F36.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KBAN15 UTC51 F39.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KGCC08 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KGOO10 UTC65 F77.0 F12.0 F low70.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KHCR10 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high57.5 F4The station
KMAE00 UTC94 F82.0 F12.0 F high91.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KMEH15 UTC46 F34.0 F12.0 F high38.7 F3Cannot be told
KMZJ16 UTC65 F77.0 F12.0 F low80.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KNSI23 UTC79 F91.0 F12.0 F low-5Cannot be told
KSFO21 UTC87 F75.0 F12.0 F high93.5 F3The station
KTRM09 UTC82 F70.0 F12.0 F high77.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KTVL11 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high53.2 F5The forecast, at this station
PAPN15 UTC39 F27.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
PATQ17 UTC21 F9.0 F12.0 F high-5Cannot be told
PATQ21 UTC26 F14.0 F12.0 F high-9Cannot be told
KNUC20 UTC83 F95.0 F12.0 F low98.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KAJO07 UTC81 F69.1 F11.9 F high77.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KAVX17 UTC80 F91.9 F11.9 F low88.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KNSI21 UTC80 F91.9 F11.9 F low-3Cannot be told
KNZY23 UTC89 F100.9 F11.9 F low103.0 F5The forecast, at this station
PAQT06 UTC18 F6.1 F11.9 F high-18Cannot be told
PAPN16 UTC38 F26.1 F11.9 F high-4Cannot be told
K4BM08 UTC40 F51.8 F11.8 F low41.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KCPW11 UTC31 F42.8 F11.8 F low-5Cannot be told
KCPW12 UTC31 F42.8 F11.8 F low-6Cannot be told
KEKS12 UTC51 F39.2 F11.8 F high40.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KHCR13 UTC51 F39.2 F11.8 F high52.8 F1The station
KL0806 UTC87 F75.2 F11.8 F high78.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KMMH12 UTC51 F39.2 F11.8 F high-6Cannot be told
KOAR14 UTC60 F48.2 F11.8 F high55.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KOUN21 UTC78 F66.2 F11.8 F high69.4 F9The forecast, at this station
KLCG20 UTC66 F77.7 F11.7 F low75.9 F20The forecast, at this station
KAXX14 UTC43 F31.3 F11.7 F high-2Cannot be told
K10U10 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high-4Cannot be told
K1D119 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high57.4 F7The forecast, at this station
KBWP19 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high57.7 F7The forecast, at this station
KETH19 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high55.7 F7The forecast, across the area
KO2612 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high-6Cannot be told
KLLR19 UTC69 F80.6 F11.6 F low-1Cannot be told
KLLR20 UTC69 F80.6 F11.6 F low-2Cannot be told
KLLR23 UTC69 F80.6 F11.6 F low-5Cannot be told
KMZJ15 UTC60 F71.6 F11.6 F low77.1 F9The forecast, at this station
K1LW11 UTC54 F65.5 F11.5 F low48.2 F5The station
PAIM14 UTC19 F7.5 F11.5 F high-2Cannot be told
K4A618 UTC83 F71.6 F11.4 F high78.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KCWN14 UTC58 F69.4 F11.4 F low55.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW18 UTC71 F82.4 F11.4 F low85.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW19 UTC71 F82.4 F11.4 F low87.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KHEG21 UTC80 F91.4 F11.4 F low87.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KMZJ07 UTC62 F73.4 F11.4 F low77.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KOWP10 UTC53 F64.4 F11.4 F low63.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KSSC21 UTC75 F86.4 F11.4 F low81.0 F3The forecast, at this station
K2D518 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high55.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KBTN19 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high57.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KMOX19 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high55.5 F7The forecast, at this station
KOAR16 UTC65 F53.6 F11.4 F high66.6 F4The station
KTMT14 UTC43 F31.6 F11.4 F high-2Cannot be told
PAIM16 UTC19 F7.7 F11.3 F high-4Cannot be told
KBGE19 UTC86 F74.7 F11.3 F high83.5 F1The forecast, at this station
K1LW12 UTC55 F66.2 F11.2 F low50.5 F6The forecast, at this station
K2D517 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high53.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KBTN17 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high54.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KC0813 UTC45 F33.8 F11.2 F high39.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KCPF20 UTC72 F60.8 F11.2 F high65.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KLXL20 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high56.3 F8The forecast, at this station
KMBT21 UTC81 F69.8 F11.2 F high71.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KMBT22 UTC81 F69.8 F11.2 F high71.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KMMH15 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high-3Cannot be told
KOWP06 UTC55 F66.2 F11.2 F low64.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KTMT11 UTC45 F33.8 F11.2 F high-5Cannot be told
KAQP18 UTC66 F54.9 F11.1 F high61.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KBAN13 UTC49 F37.9 F11.1 F high-1Cannot be told
KLOL15 UTC60 F48.9 F11.1 F high-3Cannot be told

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, October 3, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.32.42.42.52.4-0.453%242,926
Storm Station correction2.42.42.42.52.4-0.468%242,926
National Weather Service forecast2.32.42.42.52.4-1.1-6,974
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.42.62.73.02.7-1.2-6,974
Storm Station lead2.22.32.32.52.3-1.157%6,974
NBM, at the 70 airports2.22.32.22.42.3-1.057%6,979
Correction, at the 70 airports2.12.12.12.22.1-0.667%6,979

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.22.22.22.32.2+0.563%242,475
Storm Station correction2.22.22.22.22.2+0.370%242,475
National Weather Service forecast2.02.12.12.22.1+0.5-6,992
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.62.93.23.53.1-0.7-6,992
Storm Station lead2.02.22.42.52.3-0.172%6,992
NBM, at the 70 airports1.92.02.02.12.0+0.270%6,995
Correction, at the 70 airports2.02.12.12.12.1+0.269%6,995

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.52.52.52.52.5+0.351%242,446
Storm Station correction2.52.52.52.62.5-0.169%242,446
National Weather Service forecast2.42.52.52.52.5+0.2-6,988
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.72.72.62.62.7-1.1-6,988
Storm Station lead2.22.32.32.32.3-0.3-6,988
NBM, at the 70 airports2.42.42.42.42.4+0.454%6,991
Correction, at the 70 airports2.42.42.42.42.4-0.272%6,991

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)23.623.824.224.524.1-13.351%112,417
Storm Station correction23.523.624.024.323.9-5.464%112,417
National Weather Service forecast18.419.420.120.219.6-13.6-5,350
NOAA GFS with HRRR24.324.625.626.225.2-1.8-5,350
Storm Station lead18.619.519.819.619.4-8.3-5,350
NBM, at the 70 airports18.919.519.820.219.6-14.257%5,358
Correction, at the 70 airports17.217.517.418.217.6-0.375%5,358

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0370.0400.0410.0430.240.180.06
NOAA GFS with HRRR0.0190.0220.0230.0240.200.140.06
Storm Station lead0.0190.0220.0230.0240.210.100.06
NBM, at the 70 airports0.0190.0220.0230.0230.230.160.09

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
355
Where snow fell or was forecast
0
Mean miss, depth
- in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in000-
3 in000-
6 in000-

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.