Live/Severe Alerts/2026 season
2026 tropical season
Every tropical storm and hurricane kept in 2026 in the Atlantic, the Gulf of America, the Caribbean and the eastern and central Pacific, by the category each reached, each with its own chronicle, and how every forecast of them did. The storms being tracked now are on Severe Alerts.
The 2026 season, by category
Every storm kept since October 3, 2026, by the strongest it became: 4 storms in all.
| Strongest | Atlantic | Eastern Pacific | All |
|---|---|---|---|
| Category 5 hurricanes | - | - | - |
| Category 4 hurricanes | - | 1 | 1 |
| Category 3 hurricanes | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Category 2 hurricanes | - | 1 | 1 |
| Category 1 hurricanes | - | - | - |
| Tropical storms | - | - | - |
| Tropical depressions | - | - | - |
Category 4 hurricanes 1
- Hurricane SimonOctober 7 to 10, 2026, being tracked now
- Strongest
- 150 mph, category 4
- Lowest pressure
- 932 mb
- Traveled
- 464 miles
- Energy
- 8.9
The official forecast 48 hours ahead missed by 60 miles on average (6 forecasts).
Category 3 hurricanes 2
- Hurricane IsaiasOctober 6 to 10, 2026
- Strongest
- 120 mph, category 3
- Lowest pressure
- 959 mb
- Traveled
- 1,112 miles
- Energy
- 6.8
Landfall in Florida, October 10.
The official forecast 48 hours ahead missed by 42 miles on average (6 forecasts).
- Hurricane NoloOctober 3 to 4, 2026
- Strongest
- 115 mph, category 3
- Lowest pressure
- 957 mb
- Traveled
- 449 miles
- Energy
- 3.9
Category 2 hurricanes 1
- Hurricane RachelOctober 3 to 10, 2026, being tracked now
- Strongest
- 105 mph, category 2
- Lowest pressure
- 965 mb
- Traveled
- 1,350 miles
- Energy
- 13.1
The official forecast 48 hours ahead missed by 24 miles on average (21 forecasts).
Accumulated cyclone energy is the hurricane center's measure of a storm's strength and length together: the squares of its strongest winds every six hours while it was a tropical or subtropical storm, added. Read here from the hurricane center's advisories.
How the forecasts did, 2026
Every forecast of every storm kept, scored against where the storm went: the hurricane center's official forecast, Storm Station's own, and NOAA's models, each by its own name.
| Forecast | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 96 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official forecast | 1954 | 2246 | 2739 | 3433 | 4027 | 5821 | 11113 | 2129 |
| GFS | 316 | 262 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| GEFS | 386 | 432 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| AIGFS | 336 | 262 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HAFS-A | 483 | 431 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HAFS-B | 476 | 622 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Track error: how far each forecast put the centre from where the storm was, in miles, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.
| Forecast | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 96 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFS | 31 / 326 | 26 / 422 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| GEFS | 38 / 326 | 43 / 422 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| AIGFS | 33 / 326 | 26 / 422 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HAFS-A | 48 / 413 | 43 / 701 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HAFS-B | 47 / 326 | 62 / 422 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
On the same forecasts as the official one: each one's track error, then the official forecast's for the same storm, hour and hours ahead, in miles; the number of forecasts beneath.
| Forecast | 12 h | 24 h | 36 h | 48 h | 60 h | 72 h | 96 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official forecast | 554 | 646 | 639 | 733 | 827 | 921 | 713 | 79 |
| GFS | 226 | 332 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| GEFS | 226 | 272 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| AIGFS | 166 | 302 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HAFS-A | 73 | 161 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HAFS-B | 66 | 92 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Intensity error: how far each forecast's strongest winds were from the storm's, in mph, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.
How each is scored, as the hurricane center scores its own: against where its advisories put the storm at each six hours, and only while the storm was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Each model is taken from its run six hours before, carried to the hour and set on the storm's centre and winds then, as the hurricane center does with its own early models, so every forecast here was there when the official one was issued. Storm Station's is made from those models, never from the official forecast.