Live/Accuracy
Forecast accuracy, the day after
Every forecast Storm Station records is checked the next day against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast, and every miss of more than 10 F is explained.
- Day scored
- September 29, 2026
- Hours of reports
- 24 of 24
- Temperature forecasts scored
- 236,088
- Readings checked
- 116,174
- Readings that failed
- 154
Which forecast leads
The Storm Station correction is scored beside the blend every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Until then the blend leads.
- Temperature Blend of models2 days scored
- Dew point Blend of models2 days scored
- Wind Blend of models2 days scored
- Sky cover Blend of models1 day scored
Temperature
| Forecast | 1 to 6 h | 7 to 12 h | 13 to 18 h | 19 to 25 h | All | Ran | Inside its band | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blend of models | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | +0.1 | 52% | 236,088 |
| Storm Station correction | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | +0.1 | 52% | 236,088 |
| Forecaster’s grid | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | - | 2.1 | -0.3 | - | 2,073 |
| Global model | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.5 | - | 2.2 | -0.3 | - | 2,073 |
| Storm Station lead | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | - | 1.9 | -0.3 | - | 2,073 |
Dew point
| Forecast | 1 to 6 h | 7 to 12 h | 13 to 18 h | 19 to 25 h | All | Ran | Inside its band | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blend of models | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | +0.5 | 63% | 235,305 |
| Storm Station correction | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | +0.5 | 63% | 235,305 |
| Forecaster’s grid | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | - | 1.8 | 0.0 | - | 2,074 |
| Global model | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 | - | 2.6 | -0.8 | - | 2,074 |
| Storm Station lead | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | 1.9 | -0.4 | - | 2,074 |
Wind
| Forecast | 1 to 6 h | 7 to 12 h | 13 to 18 h | 19 to 25 h | All | Ran | Inside its band | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blend of models | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.3 | 53% | 235,184 |
| Storm Station correction | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.3 | 53% | 235,184 |
| Forecaster’s grid | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.0 | - | 2.7 | +0.2 | - | 2,066 |
| Global model | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.1 | - | 2.8 | -0.7 | - | 2,066 |
| Storm Station lead | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | - | 2.5 | -0.3 | - | 2,066 |
Sky cover
| Forecast | 1 to 6 h | 7 to 12 h | 13 to 18 h | 19 to 25 h | All | Ran | Inside its band | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blend of models | 25.7 | 26.1 | 26.4 | 27.0 | 26.3 | -15.2 | 45% | 88,103 |
| Storm Station correction | 25.7 | 26.1 | 26.4 | 27.0 | 26.3 | -15.2 | 45% | 88,103 |
| Forecaster’s grid | 18.6 | 20.4 | 22.0 | - | 19.7 | -13.2 | - | 1,734 |
| Global model | 23.3 | 21.1 | 23.1 | - | 22.5 | -2.2 | - | 1,734 |
| Storm Station lead | 17.7 | 16.9 | 19.6 | - | 17.7 | -7.7 | - | 1,734 |
Rain
The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.
| Forecast | Brier, 1 to 6 h | Brier, 7 to 12 h | Brier, 13 to 18 h | Brier, 19 to 25 h | Skill, 1 to 6 h | Threat score, 0.01 in | Threat score, 0.10 in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blend of models | 0.036 | 0.037 | 0.038 | 0.040 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.10 |
| Global model | 0.034 | 0.044 | 0.053 | - | 0.41 | 0.27 | 0.06 |
| Storm Station lead | 0.034 | 0.044 | 0.053 | - | 0.41 | 0.29 | 0.12 |
Snow
-
Misses of more than 10 F, explained
- 31The stationThe reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
- 1The forecast, across the areaMost of the stations around it were missed the same way.
- 317The forecast, at this stationIts neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
- 39Cannot be toldToo few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
| Airfield | Hour | Said | Read | Its neighbours | Hours ahead | Who was wrong |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PATA | 00 UTC | 46 F | 5.0 F | - | 6 | Cannot be told |
| KOAR | 17 UTC | 63 F | 37.4 F | 62.2 F | 5 | The station |
| KOAR | 16 UTC | 59 F | 35.6 F | 57.7 F | 4 | The station |
| KGVW | 04 UTC | 63 F | 84.2 F | 78.7 F | 4 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 05 UTC | 63 F | 84.2 F | 78.2 F | 5 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 06 UTC | 63 F | 84.2 F | 77.8 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 07 UTC | 63 F | 84.2 F | 78.2 F | 1 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 08 UTC | 63 F | 84.2 F | 76.7 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 09 UTC | 63 F | 84.2 F | 76.7 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 10 UTC | 63 F | 84.2 F | 77.1 F | 4 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 03 UTC | 64 F | 84.2 F | 79.8 F | 3 | The forecast, at this station |
| KOAR | 18 UTC | 66 F | 46.4 F | 68.0 F | 6 | The station |
| KGVW | 11 UTC | 63 F | 82.4 F | 75.6 F | 5 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 12 UTC | 63 F | 82.4 F | 75.2 F | 6 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 02 UTC | 65 F | 84.2 F | 80.7 F | 2 | The forecast, at this station |
| KGVW | 13 UTC | 65 F | 84.2 F | 78.5 F | 1 | The forecast, at this station |
| KOAR | 01 UTC | 60 F | 41.0 F | 64.1 F | 1 | The station |
| KOAR | 20 UTC | 67 F | 48.2 F | 79.1 F | 2 | The station |
| KOAR | 07 UTC | 56 F | 37.4 F | 56.8 F | 1 | The station |
| KSEE | 23 UTC | 82 F | 100.4 F | 77.3 F | 5 | The station |
| KOAR | 15 UTC | 54 F | 35.6 F | 53.2 F | 3 | The station |
| KGVW | 01 UTC | 66 F | 84.2 F | 82.4 F | 1 | The forecast, at this station |
| KC99 | 22 UTC | 58 F | 41.0 F | 46.5 F | 4 | The forecast, at this station |
| KOAR | 02 UTC | 58 F | 41.0 F | 62.9 F | 2 | The station |
| KOAR | 19 UTC | 67 F | 50.0 F | 73.1 F | 1 | The station |
How it is scored
What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.
The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.
The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.
The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.