- Depression, under 39 mph
- Tropical storm, 39 to 73 mph
- Category 1, 74 to 95
- Category 2, 96 to 110
- Category 3, 111 to 129
- Category 4, 130 to 156
- Category 5, 157 or more
- Track taken
- Forecast track
- Tropical storm force winds now
- Hurricane force winds now
- Strength
- Tropical storm
- Winds
- 50 mph, gusts 65 mph
- Pressure
- 1000 mb, 29.53 inHg
- Moving
- Toward the west at 7 mph
- Centre
- 15.4N 103.1W, within 35 miles
- Tropical storm force winds reach
- 45 miles from the centre
- Hurricane force winds reach
- -
- Advisory
- Number 4, October 8, 09:00 UTC
- Next advisory
- October 8, 15:00 UTC
Watches and warnings
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
- Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
In the hurricane center's words, from its public advisory of October 8, 09:29 UTC. Every watch and warning in force, county by county: Alerts in force.
The forecast
| Valid | Centre | Winds | Strength | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 8, 18:00 UTC | 15.4N 104.1W | 70 mph | Tropical storm | - |
| October 9, 06:00 UTC | 15.9N 105.1W | 85 mph | Category 1 hurricane | - |
| October 9, 18:00 UTC | 16.6N 105.5W | 110 mph | Category 2 hurricane | - |
| October 10, 06:00 UTC | 17.4N 105.6W | 125 mph | Category 3 hurricane | - |
| October 10, 18:00 UTC | 18.3N 105.4W | 130 mph | Category 4 hurricane | - |
| October 11, 06:00 UTC | 19.3N 105.3W | 125 mph | Category 3 hurricane | - |
| October 12, 06:00 UTC | 21.8N 105.7W | 90 mph | Category 1 hurricane | Outlook |
| October 13, 06:00 UTC | 24.3N 106.1W | 65 mph | Tropical storm | Inland |
The forecast track is the most likely path of the centre. A storm's effects reach far beyond its centre, and the centre itself stays inside the track only about two times in three.