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Live/Severe Alerts/2026 season/Hurricane Nolo

Hurricane Nolo

Hurricane Nolo, October 3 to 4, 2026, Eastern Pacific: its strongest winds of 115 mph, category 3, on October 3, its lowest pressure 957 mb; it traveled 449 miles.

Where it went

Chart of Hurricane Nolo: the track it took, every place its advisories gave it coloured by its strength then, and each of the 5 official forecasts drawn faint from where it started145E150E155E160E165E170E175E180W175W170W15N20N25N30N35NOctober 3Nolo
The track Hurricane Nolo took, from its advisories, and each official forecast drawn faint from where it started. Point to a place for its time and winds.
Chart of Hurricane Nolo: the track it took, every place its advisories gave it coloured by its strength then, and each of the 5 official forecasts drawn faint from where it started150E155E160E165E170E175E180W175W170W5N10N15N20N25N30N35N40N45NOctober 3Nolo
The track Hurricane Nolo took, from its advisories, and each official forecast drawn faint from where it started. Point to a place for its time and winds.
  • Depression, under 39 mph
  • Tropical storm, 39 to 73 mph
  • Category 1, 74 to 95
  • Category 2, 96 to 110
  • Category 3, 111 to 129
  • Category 4, 130 to 156
  • Category 5, 157 or more
  • Track taken
  • Forecast track
  • Tropical storm force winds now
  • Hurricane force winds now
Landfall
-
Its centre crossed
-
Tropical storm force winds reached
-
Hurricane force winds reached
-
Strongest winds
115 mph, category 3, October 3, 21:00 UTC
Lowest pressure
957 mb, 28.26 inHg
Days
October 3 to 4, 2026
As a tropical or subtropical cyclone
1.3 days
Traveled
449 miles
Accumulated cyclone energy
3.9
Basin
Eastern Pacific
Advisories
5

Its strength, day by day

The strongest winds of Hurricane Nolo, in mph, at each place its advisories gave it, October 3 to 4, 2026, with the winds where each category begins020406080100120140160mphOctober 4StormCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
The strongest winds of Hurricane Nolo, in mph, at each place its advisories gave it, October 3 to 4, 2026, with the winds where each category begins04080120160mphOctober 4StormCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
The lowest pressure at the centre of Hurricane Nolo, in millibars, at each of its advisories, October 3 to 4, 2026. Lower is stronger.950960970mbOctober 4
The lowest pressure at the centre of Hurricane Nolo, in millibars, at each of its advisories, October 3 to 4, 2026. Lower is stronger.940960980mbOctober 4

How the forecasts did

Every forecast of Hurricane Nolo scored against where it went: the hurricane center's official forecast, Storm Station's own, and NOAA's models, each by its own name.

Track error of every forecast of Hurricane Nolo by hours ahead, in miles: the mean distance from where each forecast put the centre to where the storm was. Lower is closer.05101520miles12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 hOfficial forecast
Track error of every forecast of Hurricane Nolo by hours ahead, in miles: the mean distance from where each forecast put the centre to where the storm was. Lower is closer.05101520miles12 h36 h60 h120 hOfficial forecast
Track error, miles
Forecast12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 h
Official forecast53151------

Track error: how far each forecast put the centre from where the storm was, in miles, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.

Intensity error, mph
Forecast12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 h
Official forecast103171------

Intensity error: how far each forecast's strongest winds were from the storm's, in mph, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.

How each is scored, as the hurricane center scores its own: against where its advisories put the storm at each six hours, and only while the storm was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Each model is taken from its run six hours before, carried to the hour and set on the storm's centre and winds then, as the hurricane center does with its own early models, so every forecast here was there when the official one was issued. Storm Station's is made from those models, never from the official forecast.

The advisories

Every forecast advisory, newest first
AdvisoryIssuedAsCentreWindsPressureMoving
57October 4, 21:00 UTCMajor Hurricane Nolo24.2N 180.0E115 mph959 mbToward the west at 17 mph
56October 4, 15:00 UTCMajor Hurricane Nolo23.8N 178.5W115 mph963 mbToward the west at 18 mph
55October 4, 09:00 UTCHurricane Nolo23.6N 176.7W110 mph963 mbToward the west at 18 mph
54October 4, 03:00 UTCMajor Hurricane Nolo23.4N 175.1W115 mph957 mbToward the west at 20 mph
53October 3, 21:00 UTCMajor Hurricane Nolo23.2N 173.1W115 mph959 mbToward the west at 17 mph
Each public advisory's headline, newest first
AdvisoryIssuedHeadline
59October 5, 09:07 UTCTyphoon Nolo Moving West-Northwest
57October 4, 20:37 UTCNolo Crossing The International Dateline
56October 4, 14:39 UTCNolo Strengthens Moving Quickly Westward
54October 4, 02:53 UTCNolo Racing Toward The West
53AOctober 3, 23:43 UTCNolo Moving Quickly Westward As A Major Hurricane
53October 3, 20:39 UTCExpected To Cross The International Date Line On Sunday
52AOctober 3, 17:44 UTCNolo Becomes A Major Hurricane

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