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Live/Forecast engine/October 12, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

October 12, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 888 airfields, was level at 477 and further at 1,114. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,349 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on October 12, 2026: closer at 852, level at 461, further at 1,036; the 70 panel airports ringed

888 of 2,479 airfields closer than the NBM44 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more341
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F547
  3. level, within 0.1 F477
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F636
  5. further by 0.5 F or more478

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 1 of 70, level at 64 and further at 5. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,347 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on October 12, 2026: closer at 930, level at 542, further at 875; the 70 panel airports ringed

980 of 2,477 airfields closer than the NBM51 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more431
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F549
  3. level, within 0.1 F567
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F642
  5. further by 0.5 F or more288

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 1 of 70, level at 65 and further at 4. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,355 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on October 12, 2026: closer at 901, level at 541, further at 913; the 70 panel airports ringed

959 of 2,492 airfields closer than the NBM50 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more331
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph628
  3. level, within 0.1 mph574
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph640
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more319

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 15 of 70, level at 45 and further at 10. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 1,844 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on October 12, 2026: closer at 1,184, level at 301, further at 359; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,247 of 1,958 airfields closer than the NBM76 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more884
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points363
  3. level, within 1 point318
  4. further by 1 to 5 points213
  5. further by 5 points or more180

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 0 of 68, level at 61 and further at 7. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on October 12, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.2 F on average, and within 5 F in 92 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.4 F warm.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
233,657
Readings checked
117,001
Readings that failed
141
Misses over 10 F
871

Who came closest on October 12, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1ECMWF AIFSArtificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model+7.7%Temperature1.8 FDew point1.8 FWind3.1 mphSky cover18.5 points
  2. 2Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after+3.5%Temperature2.3 FDew point2.1 FWind2.7 mphSky cover16.8 points
  3. 3NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.2 FDew point2.1 FWind2.7 mphSky cover21.9 points
  4. 4Storm StationThe engine’s own forecast, as every page prints it-0.7%Temperature2.2 FDew point2.1 FWind2.7 mphSky cover22.1 points
  5. 5National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database-2.9%Temperature2.2 FDew point2.3 FWind2.8 mphSky cover20.7 points
  6. 6ECMWF IFSIntegrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model-6.8%Temperature2.3 FDew point2.0 FWind3.1 mphSky cover23.9 points
  7. 7NOAA GFSGlobal Forecast System, NOAA’s global model-15.9%Temperature2.3 FDew point2.7 FWind3.0 mphSky cover25.8 points
  8. 8NOAA HRRRHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour-17.1%Temperature2.5 FDew point2.6 FWind3.0 mphSky cover27.3 points
  9. 9NOAA NAMNorth American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48-22.7%Temperature2.8 FDew point2.8 FWind2.8 mphSky cover28.8 points

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, October 12, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports-1%-1.4%-1.3%-2.6%-1.7%-1.7%-1.5%-0.9%-0.4%-1.1%+1.2%+1.1%+1.1%+0.7%+0.9%-1.8%-0.1%-1.2%-1.5%-1.1%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports-1%-1.4%-2.2%-2.6%-1.9%-12.2%-13.2%-9.8%-10.1%-11.4%-4.2%-3%-3.7%-4.7%-3.9%+4.3%+7.3%+5.3%+5.6%+5.6%
NOAA GFSat the 70 airports-7.4%-5.7%-2.2%-5.6%-5.2%-34.8%-31%-27.4%-26.4%-29.5%-11.5%-9.4%-10.4%-12.6%-11%-20.1%-15.4%-18.5%-17.7%-17.9%
NOAA HRRRat the 70 airports-13.9%-17.6%-15.6%-18.5%-14.8%-30.9%-29.4%-21.9%-21.6%-23.4%-10%-8.2%-8.9%-11.9%-8.8%-25.8%-22.6%-23.4%-27%-21.4%
NOAA NAMat the 70 airports-26.7%-27.6%-24.6%-27.5%-24.7%-53.6%-43.7%-29.8%-30%-35.8%-1.9%-4.9%-3%-2.9%-2.2%-33.7%-30.4%-31.6%-31%-28.1%
ECMWF IFSat the 70 airports-10.4%-9.5%-3.1%-4.3%-6.5%-0.6%+0.5%+5.6%+5.3%+3.4%-13.8%-14.6%-17.4%-14.1%-14.8%-8.5%-9%-9.5%-9.6%-9.1%
ECMWF AIFSat the 70 airports+12.4%+15.2%+20.1%+19.7%+17.2%+7.2%+13.7%+17.2%+16.7%+14.3%-16.5%-16.5%-16.3%-15.2%-15.9%+17.8%+16.3%+14.8%+12.7%+15.2%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield-5.4%-4.4%-3.4%-2%-3.4%+4.9%+5.2%+4%+4.3%+4.6%+0.7%+0.7%+0.4%+0.7%+0.7%+18%+18.5%+18.9%+17.3%+18.1%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 12, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of October 12, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked117,001 readings, 141 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day2,709,717 forecast hoursEach large miss explained871 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned35,268 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 117,001 readings, 141 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 2,709,717 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 871 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 35,268 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.21 F, the NBM 2.18 FBehind today by 0.04 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.08 F, the NBM 2.06 FBehind today by 0.02 F
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.66 mph, the NBM 2.69 mphAhead today by 0.03 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 22.14 points, the NBM 21.89 pointsBehind today by 0.25 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station 44 in 100 hours, the NBM 45; off by 0.68 categories, the NBM 0.67Behind today by 1 in 100 hours
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it74 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 58Too wide today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.53 against 0.55, 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.02
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.35 against 0.36 at 0.01 inchBehind today by 0.01
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forwardStorm Station 2.04 F, the NBM 2.02 F, the last reading carried forward 4.46 F, temperature 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.02 F

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

October 12, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, October 12, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMHRRRCorrectionGFSNBMECMWF IFSStorm StationNWS forecastECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, October 12, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hECMWF AIFSECMWF IFSGFSHRRRNWS forecastNBMNAMCorrectionStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, October 12, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMGFSHRRRNWS forecastNBMStorm StationCorrectionECMWF IFSECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, October 12, 20260102030401 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMHRRRNBMGFSECMWF IFSStorm StationCorrectionNWS forecastECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.4 F warmStorm Station0.4 F warmNWS forecast0.3 F warmGFS0.2 F warmHRRR0.6 F coolNAM0.4 F coolECMWF IFS0.2 F coolECMWF AIFS0.5 F coolCorrection0.2 F warm

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.7 mph strongStorm Station0.5 mph strongNWS forecast0.4 mph strongGFS0.4 mph lightHRRR1.0 mph lightNAM1.0 mph lightECMWF IFS1.6 mph lightECMWF AIFS1.3 mph lightCorrection0.2 mph strong

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM1.1 F moistStorm Station1.1 F moistNWS forecast1.3 F moistGFS1.7 F dryHRRR0.7 F moistNAM1.7 F moistECMWF IFS0.9 F moistECMWF AIFS0.6 F moistCorrection0.5 F moist

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM21.0 points clearStorm Station18.0 points clearNWS forecast15.7 points clearGFS12.3 points clearHRRR4.7 points clearNAM20.1 points clearECMWF IFS16.5 points clearECMWF AIFS13.4 points clearCorrection6.3 points clear

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
PANV Anvik AirportAK0.5 F0.5 F cool12-
PAPO Point Hope AirportAK0.5 F0.3 F cool96-
KPRS Presidio Lely International AirportTX0.6 F0.2 F cool100-
KTXW Mid Valley International AirportTX0.6 F0.3 F warm100-
KATP-0.6 F0.5 F cool100-
KCOF Patrick Space Force BaseFL0.6 F0.5 F cool100-
KF05 Wilbarger County AirportTX0.6 F0.1 F warm100-
KHWO North Perry AirportFL0.6 F0.4 F warm100-
PAKK Koyuk Alfred Adams AirportAK0.7 F0.2 F warm78-
KBPG Big Spring Mc Mahon-Wrinkle AirportTX0.7 Feven100-
KE42 Spearman Municipal AirportTX0.7 F0.3 F cool100-
PAGN Angoon Seaplane BaseAK0.7 Feven100-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
K1NW-18.0 F18.0 F cool100the forecast, at this station 22
KYKN Chan Gurney Municipal AirportSD13.4 F13.4 F warm100the forecast, across the area 6, the forecast, at this station 1
K4V9 Antelope County AirportNE13.3 F13.3 F warm100cannot be told 6
KVMR Harold Davidson FieldSD13.1 F13.1 F warm96the forecast, across the area 5, the forecast, at this station 1
KOFK Karl Stefan Memorial AirportNE11.9 F11.7 F warm100the forecast, across the area 6, the forecast, at this station 5
KBVN Albion Municipal Airport/Ron Levander FieldNE11.7 F11.4 F warm63the forecast, across the area 5, the station 3, the forecast, at this station 2
KLCG Wayne Municipal Airport / Stan Morris FieldNE11.1 F10.8 F warm100the forecast, across the area 5, the forecast, at this station 5
KODX Evelyn Sharp FieldNE10.5 F10.5 F warm100the forecast, at this station 5, the forecast, across the area 1
KC99-10.4 F10.4 F cool100the forecast, at this station 13
KFSD Sioux Falls Regional AirportSD9.9 F9.9 F warm100the forecast, across the area 4, the forecast, at this station 1
KONL O'Neill Municipal Airport-John L Baker FieldNE9.4 F9.4 F warm100-
KMDS Madison Municipal AirportSD9.3 F9.3 F warm83the forecast, across the area 3, the forecast, at this station 1

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station21The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area193Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station507Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told150Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of October 12, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
K1NW22 UTC46 F80.4 F34.4 F low77.0 F4The forecast, at this station
K1NW03 UTC41 F75.0 F34.0 F low63.8 F3The forecast, at this station
K1NW21 UTC47 F80.4 F33.4 F low78.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KSAW02 UTC65 F32.0 F33.0 F high61.1 F2The station
K1NW23 UTC46 F78.8 F32.8 F low75.0 F5The forecast, at this station
K1NW00 UTC45 F77.7 F32.7 F low73.7 F6The forecast, at this station
K1NW01 UTC42 F74.7 F32.7 F low68.9 F1The forecast, at this station
K1NW20 UTC47 F79.5 F32.5 F low77.4 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW19 UTC46 F78.4 F32.4 F low77.1 F1The forecast, at this station
K1NW18 UTC45 F76.5 F31.5 F low76.3 F6The forecast, at this station
K1NW04 UTC41 F71.4 F30.4 F low62.5 F4The forecast, at this station
K1NW02 UTC41 F71.2 F30.2 F low66.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KPAH15 UTC77 F105.8 F28.8 F low75.1 F3The station
K1NW05 UTC41 F69.6 F28.6 F low62.0 F5The forecast, at this station
K1NW06 UTC41 F68.0 F27.0 F low59.5 F6The forecast, at this station
K1NW17 UTC45 F72.0 F27.0 F low74.1 F5The forecast, at this station
K1NW07 UTC40 F65.8 F25.8 F low58.3 F1The forecast, at this station
K1NW08 UTC40 F64.6 F24.6 F low59.4 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW16 UTC43 F66.9 F23.9 F low69.7 F4The forecast, at this station
K1NW09 UTC39 F61.5 F22.5 F low57.2 F3The forecast, at this station
KSXK21 UTC82 F60.8 F21.2 F high69.8 F3The forecast, across the area
KOFK19 UTC81 F60.1 F20.9 F high69.5 F1The forecast, across the area
KSHL22 UTC81 F60.8 F20.2 F high67.8 F4The forecast, across the area
KFSD21 UTC76 F55.9 F20.1 F high66.2 F3The forecast, across the area
KSXK22 UTC79 F59.0 F20.0 F high61.0 F4The forecast, across the area
KSHL23 UTC77 F57.2 F19.8 F high60.4 F5The forecast, across the area
K1NW15 UTC42 F61.5 F19.5 F low61.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KSLB23 UTC82 F62.6 F19.4 F high63.5 F5The forecast, across the area
KCKP23 UTC80 F60.8 F19.2 F high62.0 F5The forecast, across the area
KVMR19 UTC80 F60.8 F19.2 F high65.8 F1The forecast, across the area
KLYV22 UTC78 F59.0 F19.0 F high60.7 F4The forecast, across the area
KCKP22 UTC85 F66.2 F18.8 F high67.6 F4The forecast, across the area
KBVN18 UTC77 F58.6 F18.4 F high83.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KLCG19 UTC83 F64.8 F18.2 F high73.9 F1The forecast, across the area
KBVN19 UTC78 F59.9 F18.1 F high73.8 F1The forecast, across the area
KOLU21 UTC85 F66.9 F18.1 F high76.5 F3The forecast, across the area
KFSD20 UTC77 F59.0 F18.0 F high70.7 F2The forecast, across the area
KFSD22 UTC73 F55.0 F18.0 F high59.5 F4The forecast, across the area
KSPW23 UTC82 F64.0 F18.0 F high63.1 F5The forecast, across the area
KVMR21 UTC77 F59.0 F18.0 F high61.7 F3The forecast, across the area
KSUX22 UTC80 F62.1 F17.9 F high66.6 F4The forecast, across the area
KC9900 UTC34 F51.8 F17.8 F low49.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KSXK23 UTC75 F57.2 F17.8 F high59.9 F5The forecast, across the area
K4V917 UTC73 F55.4 F17.6 F high-5Cannot be told
KVMR20 UTC78 F60.8 F17.2 F high64.9 F2The forecast, across the area
KLCG20 UTC81 F64.0 F17.0 F high68.9 F2The forecast, across the area
KOFK18 UTC80 F63.0 F17.0 F high77.2 F6The forecast, across the area
KTQE23 UTC83 F66.0 F17.0 F high72.5 F5The forecast, across the area
KOLU20 UTC86 F69.1 F16.9 F high80.4 F2The forecast, across the area
KEKS09 UTC38 F21.2 F16.8 F high28.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KC9906 UTC26 F42.8 F16.8 F low41.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KFET22 UTC88 F71.2 F16.8 F high79.1 F4The forecast, across the area
KLYV23 UTC74 F57.2 F16.8 F high57.5 F5The forecast, across the area
KMDS20 UTC72 F55.4 F16.6 F high58.9 F2The forecast, across the area
K1NW10 UTC40 F56.5 F16.5 F low54.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KMDS22 UTC68 F51.8 F16.2 F high53.8 F4The forecast, across the area
KBIH13 UTC35 F51.1 F16.1 F low-1Cannot be told
KODX16 UTC72 F55.9 F16.1 F high60.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KSUX21 UTC83 F66.9 F16.1 F high77.4 F3The forecast, across the area
KC9901 UTC34 F50.0 F16.0 F low48.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KC9909 UTC25 F41.0 F16.0 F low39.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KFSD23 UTC70 F54.0 F16.0 F high57.2 F5The forecast, across the area
KOLU23 UTC79 F63.0 F16.0 F high68.3 F5The forecast, across the area
KSUX20 UTC86 F70.0 F16.0 F high84.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KSUX23 UTC77 F61.0 F16.0 F high61.2 F5The forecast, across the area
KTQE22 UTC88 F72.0 F16.0 F high79.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KYKN19 UTC73 F57.0 F16.0 F high62.8 F1The forecast, across the area
KYKN20 UTC73 F57.0 F16.0 F high59.9 F2The forecast, across the area
KLCG22 UTC76 F60.1 F15.9 F high62.6 F4The forecast, across the area
KOTG23 UTC78 F62.1 F15.9 F high60.9 F5The forecast, across the area
K20V14 UTC36 F51.8 F15.8 F low47.1 F2The forecast, at this station
K4V918 UTC73 F57.2 F15.8 F high-6Cannot be told
KLCG21 UTC78 F62.2 F15.8 F high65.8 F3The forecast, across the area
KFET23 UTC83 F67.3 F15.7 F high71.9 F5The forecast, across the area
K4V916 UTC71 F55.4 F15.6 F high-4Cannot be told
KC9903 UTC29 F44.6 F15.6 F low44.7 F3The forecast, at this station
K4V915 UTC69 F53.6 F15.4 F high-3Cannot be told
KC9902 UTC31 F46.4 F15.4 F low46.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KLCG23 UTC74 F58.6 F15.4 F high60.6 F5The forecast, across the area
KLCG12 UTC68 F52.7 F15.3 F high59.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KLCG13 UTC68 F52.7 F15.3 F high62.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KODX17 UTC73 F57.9 F15.1 F high60.8 F5The forecast, across the area
KOLU22 UTC82 F66.9 F15.1 F high71.4 F4The forecast, across the area
KODX15 UTC69 F54.0 F15.0 F high64.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KODX18 UTC74 F59.0 F15.0 F high61.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KPGA19 UTC69 F54.0 F15.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KPGA20 UTC69 F54.0 F15.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KYKN18 UTC72 F57.0 F15.0 F high67.4 F6The forecast, across the area
KMDS23 UTC65 F50.0 F15.0 F high52.9 F5The forecast, across the area
K20V11 UTC37 F51.8 F14.8 F low51.4 F5The forecast, across the area
KBVN11 UTC68 F53.2 F14.8 F high70.8 F5The station
KGNB12 UTC32 F46.8 F14.8 F low47.0 F6The forecast, across the area
KLYV21 UTC81 F66.2 F14.8 F high69.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KU9619 UTC70 F55.2 F14.8 F high-1Cannot be told
KBTA23 UTC84 F69.3 F14.7 F high75.0 F5The forecast, across the area
K1NW13 UTC39 F53.6 F14.6 F low47.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KGNB10 UTC35 F49.6 F14.6 F low49.2 F4The forecast, across the area
KPQN22 UTC74 F59.4 F14.6 F high59.7 F4The forecast, across the area
KVMR18 UTC79 F64.4 F14.6 F high72.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KPQN23 UTC71 F56.5 F14.5 F high56.2 F5The forecast, across the area
KTMT13 UTC27 F41.5 F14.5 F low-1Cannot be told
KAFF13 UTC50 F64.4 F14.4 F low57.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KMZJ22 UTC68 F82.4 F14.4 F low80.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KLXL20 UTC68 F53.6 F14.4 F high59.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KBVN10 UTC68 F53.8 F14.2 F high70.8 F4The station
KC9908 UTC25 F39.2 F14.2 F low40.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KLCG11 UTC68 F53.8 F14.2 F high59.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KO8616 UTC34 F48.2 F14.2 F low41.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KSHL21 UTC84 F69.8 F14.2 F high77.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KSXK20 UTC84 F69.8 F14.2 F high78.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KVMR22 UTC75 F60.8 F14.2 F high59.9 F4The forecast, across the area
KBVN20 UTC78 F63.9 F14.1 F high67.9 F2The forecast, across the area
KYKN21 UTC72 F57.9 F14.1 F high58.2 F3The forecast, across the area
KU9620 UTC70 F55.9 F14.1 F high-2Cannot be told
KFSD19 UTC79 F64.9 F14.1 F high74.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KOFK20 UTC79 F64.9 F14.1 F high66.7 F2The forecast, across the area
K20V12 UTC36 F50.0 F14.0 F low49.6 F6The forecast, across the area
KBKX22 UTC68 F54.0 F14.0 F high58.3 F4The forecast, across the area
KC9919 UTC36 F50.0 F14.0 F low48.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KMLP21 UTC44 F30.0 F14.0 F high-9Cannot be told
KODX11 UTC66 F52.0 F14.0 F high52.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KODX12 UTC66 F52.0 F14.0 F high57.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KOFK10 UTC69 F55.0 F14.0 F high63.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KOFK11 UTC69 F55.0 F14.0 F high62.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KOFK12 UTC69 F55.0 F14.0 F high65.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KOFK21 UTC78 F64.0 F14.0 F high65.4 F3The forecast, across the area
KVMR23 UTC73 F59.0 F14.0 F high58.1 F5The forecast, across the area
KYKN22 UTC71 F57.0 F14.0 F high59.1 F4The forecast, across the area
K1AW10 UTC51 F64.9 F13.9 F low48.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KBBW11 UTC65 F51.1 F13.9 F high64.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KBIH14 UTC35 F48.9 F13.9 F low-2Cannot be told
KBVN17 UTC77 F63.1 F13.9 F high81.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KCNY20 UTC67 F53.1 F13.9 F high-2Cannot be told
KHDN12 UTC42 F55.9 F13.9 F low52.4 F6The forecast, across the area
KOFK22 UTC76 F62.1 F13.9 F high64.7 F4The forecast, across the area
KOFK23 UTC74 F60.1 F13.9 F high62.2 F5The forecast, across the area
KTOR17 UTC67 F53.1 F13.9 F high72.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KBVN22 UTC76 F62.2 F13.8 F high66.9 F4The forecast, across the area
KERI20 UTC71 F57.2 F13.8 F high72.0 F2The station
KLCG10 UTC68 F54.3 F13.7 F high55.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KBVN21 UTC77 F63.5 F13.5 F high67.8 F3The forecast, across the area
KGNB11 UTC34 F47.5 F13.5 F low48.8 F5The forecast, across the area
KTIF20 UTC75 F61.5 F13.5 F high-2Cannot be told
KJYR22 UTC85 F71.6 F13.4 F high74.2 F4The forecast, across the area
KMLE23 UTC87 F73.6 F13.4 F high76.7 F5The forecast, across the area
KMZJ00 UTC69 F82.4 F13.4 F low83.0 F6The forecast, at this station
K14Y19 UTC67 F53.6 F13.4 F high61.2 F1The forecast, at this station
K14Y20 UTC67 F53.6 F13.4 F high61.2 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW11 UTC40 F53.4 F13.4 F low52.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KAGZ00 UTC76 F62.6 F13.4 F high67.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KC9911 UTC24 F37.4 F13.4 F low38.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KC9914 UTC24 F37.4 F13.4 F low39.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KJAU17 UTC76 F62.6 F13.4 F high74.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KAHQ22 UTC89 F75.7 F13.3 F high81.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KAHQ23 UTC84 F70.7 F13.3 F high73.6 F5The forecast, across the area
KDVP23 UTC73 F59.7 F13.3 F high58.6 F5The forecast, across the area
K20V13 UTC35 F48.2 F13.2 F low48.2 F1The forecast, across the area
K4V919 UTC74 F60.8 F13.2 F high-1Cannot be told
KC9907 UTC26 F39.2 F13.2 F low40.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KC9918 UTC35 F48.2 F13.2 F low48.3 F12The forecast, at this station
KDNS23 UTC83 F69.8 F13.2 F high74.1 F5The forecast, across the area
KGRN18 UTC67 F53.8 F13.2 F high-6Cannot be told
KBIH12 UTC38 F51.1 F13.1 F low-6Cannot be told
KBVN09 UTC68 F54.9 F13.1 F high69.9 F3The station
KCEZ08 UTC47 F60.1 F13.1 F low53.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KDVP16 UTC66 F52.9 F13.1 F high60.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KLCG09 UTC68 F54.9 F13.1 F high56.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KOFK08 UTC69 F55.9 F13.1 F high63.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KOFK09 UTC69 F55.9 F13.1 F high63.2 F3The forecast, at this station
KSBS13 UTC40 F53.1 F13.1 F low49.4 F1The forecast, across the area
K1D821 UTC63 F50.0 F13.0 F high51.0 F15The forecast, across the area
K4V913 UTC63 F50.0 F13.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KBBW09 UTC65 F52.0 F13.0 F high66.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KBBW10 UTC65 F52.0 F13.0 F high66.3 F4The station
KBBW15 UTC68 F55.0 F13.0 F high63.2 F9The forecast, across the area
KBVN23 UTC74 F61.0 F13.0 F high63.0 F5The forecast, across the area
KC9904 UTC28 F41.0 F13.0 F low42.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KCAG13 UTC42 F55.0 F13.0 F low54.6 F1The forecast, across the area
KCEZ09 UTC46 F59.0 F13.0 F low52.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KCEZ11 UTC44 F57.0 F13.0 F low51.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KCEZ12 UTC44 F57.0 F13.0 F low50.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KGRB21 UTC83 F70.0 F13.0 F high81.5 F3The station
KHDN13 UTC41 F54.0 F13.0 F low51.7 F1The forecast, across the area
KHON22 UTC65 F52.0 F13.0 F high51.9 F16The forecast, across the area
KLGD14 UTC28 F41.0 F13.0 F low37.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KLNK23 UTC88 F75.0 F13.0 F high73.8 F5The forecast, across the area
KMZJ02 UTC64 F77.0 F13.0 F low77.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KOMA23 UTC88 F75.0 F13.0 F high76.9 F5The forecast, across the area
KSPW22 UTC86 F73.0 F13.0 F high75.7 F4The forecast, across the area
KSUX08 UTC70 F57.0 F13.0 F high64.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KTOR16 UTC61 F48.0 F13.0 F high69.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KYKN16 UTC68 F55.0 F13.0 F high63.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KYKN17 UTC70 F57.0 F13.0 F high67.8 F5The forecast, across the area
K0S912 UTC45 F32.0 F13.0 F high43.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KMDS19 UTC72 F59.0 F13.0 F high63.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KMEZ08 UTC62 F75.0 F13.0 F low61.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KOTG22 UTC82 F69.1 F12.9 F high66.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KBKX23 UTC66 F53.1 F12.9 F high53.8 F5The forecast, across the area
KCEZ10 UTC45 F57.9 F12.9 F low52.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KDWX03 UTC47 F59.9 F12.9 F low55.4 F3The forecast, at this station

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, October 12, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.22.32.42.52.3+0.458%233,657
Storm Station correction2.42.42.52.52.4+0.274%233,657
National Weather Service forecast2.02.12.32.42.2+0.3-6,949
NOAA GFS2.22.22.32.52.3+0.2-6,976
NOAA HRRR2.32.52.62.82.5-0.6-6,649
NOAA NAM2.62.72.83.02.8-0.4-6,649
ECMWF IFS2.22.32.32.42.3-0.2-2,228
ECMWF AIFS1.81.81.81.91.8-0.5-1,113
Storm Station lead2.02.12.32.42.2+0.462%6,949
NBM, at the 70 airports2.02.12.22.32.2+0.362%6,972
Correction, at the 70 airports2.12.22.42.42.3+0.771%6,972

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.02.12.22.32.2+1.162%232,993
Storm Station correction1.92.02.12.22.1+0.571%232,993
National Weather Service forecast2.02.22.42.52.3+1.3-6,957
NOAA GFS2.42.62.72.92.7-1.7-6,984
NOAA HRRR2.42.52.62.82.6+0.7-6,657
NOAA NAM2.82.82.83.02.8+1.7-6,657
ECMWF IFS1.82.02.02.12.0+0.9-2,228
ECMWF AIFS1.71.71.81.91.8+0.6-1,117
Storm Station lead1.82.02.22.32.1+1.169%6,957
NBM, at the 70 airports1.82.02.12.32.1+1.169%6,981
Correction, at the 70 airports1.92.02.22.32.1+0.872%6,981

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.72.82.82.92.8+0.751%233,763
Storm Station correction2.72.72.82.82.8+0.271%233,763
National Weather Service forecast2.72.82.82.92.8+0.4-6,945
NOAA GFS2.92.93.03.13.0-0.4-6,972
NOAA HRRR2.92.92.93.13.0-1.0-6,649
NOAA NAM2.62.82.82.92.8-1.0-6,649
ECMWF IFS3.03.13.23.23.1-1.6-2,224
ECMWF AIFS3.03.13.13.23.1-1.3-1,109
Storm Station lead2.62.62.72.82.7+0.5-6,945
NBM, at the 70 airports2.62.72.72.82.7+0.653%6,967
Correction, at the 70 airports2.62.72.72.82.7-0.172%6,967

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)25.226.426.526.226.1-21.051%110,538
Storm Station correction20.721.521.521.721.4-6.380%110,538
National Weather Service forecast20.220.520.921.020.7-15.7-5,552
NOAA GFS25.325.626.126.225.8-12.3-5,580
NOAA HRRR26.627.127.228.327.3-4.7-5,254
NOAA NAM28.228.929.029.128.8-20.1-5,254
ECMWF IFS22.924.124.124.423.9-16.5-1,805
ECMWF AIFS17.318.618.819.418.5-13.4-929
Storm Station lead21.522.222.322.622.1-18.0-5,554
NBM, at the 70 airports21.122.122.022.221.9-17.855%5,580
Correction, at the 70 airports15.916.816.917.516.8-2.584%5,580

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0360.0370.0380.0400.380.300.15
Storm Station lead0.0300.0320.0350.0400.530.350.29
NBM, at the 70 airports0.0290.0330.0340.0360.550.360.26

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
546
Where snow fell or was forecast
133
Mean miss, depth
2.2 in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in3210910.18
3 in56350.09
6 in1360.10

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.