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Live/Forecast engine/October 11, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

October 11, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 841 airfields, was level at 472 and further at 1,160. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,341 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on October 11, 2026: closer at 799, level at 453, further at 1,089; the 70 panel airports ringed

841 of 2,473 airfields closer than the NBM42 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more376
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F465
  3. level, within 0.1 F472
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F611
  5. further by 0.5 F or more549

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 0 of 70, level at 66 and further at 4. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,339 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on October 11, 2026: closer at 811, level at 530, further at 998; the 70 panel airports ringed

854 of 2,471 airfields closer than the NBM45 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more395
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F459
  3. level, within 0.1 F558
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F710
  5. further by 0.5 F or more349

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 2 of 70, level at 67 and further at 1. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,348 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on October 11, 2026: closer at 1,098, level at 524, further at 726; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,144 of 2,484 airfields closer than the NBM59 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more442
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph702
  3. level, within 0.1 mph552
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph548
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more240

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 22 of 70, level at 42 and further at 6. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 1,763 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on October 11, 2026: closer at 717, level at 385, further at 661; the 70 panel airports ringed

764 of 1,877 airfields closer than the NBM52 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more426
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points338
  3. level, within 1 point403
  4. further by 1 to 5 points316
  5. further by 5 points or more394

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 3 of 70, level at 63 and further at 4. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on October 11, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.3 F on average, and within 5 F in 92 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.5 F warm.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
234,972
Readings checked
116,390
Readings that failed
156
Misses over 10 F
581

Who came closest on October 11, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1ECMWF AIFSArtificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model+4.4%Temperature2.1 FDew point2.0 FWind3.1 mphSky cover16.6 points
  2. 2Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after+2.3%Temperature2.4 FDew point2.3 FWind2.9 mphSky cover15.1 points
  3. 3NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.2 FDew point2.1 FWind3.0 mphSky cover18.7 points
  4. 4Storm StationThe engine’s own forecast, as every page prints it-0.5%Temperature2.3 FDew point2.1 FWind2.9 mphSky cover18.8 points
  5. 5ECMWF IFSIntegrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model-1.6%Temperature2.5 FDew point2.1 FWind3.1 mphSky cover17.4 points
  6. 6National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database-3.1%Temperature2.3 FDew point2.4 FWind3.1 mphSky cover18.0 points
  7. 7NOAA GFSGlobal Forecast System, NOAA’s global model-12.4%Temperature2.5 FDew point2.8 FWind3.0 mphSky cover19.2 points
  8. 8NOAA HRRRHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour-12.8%Temperature2.5 FDew point2.6 FWind3.1 mphSky cover21.0 points
  9. 9NOAA NAMNorth American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48-19.9%Temperature2.8 FDew point3.0 FWind3.0 mphSky cover22.0 points

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, October 11, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports-1.9%-2.7%-3.6%-4.2%-3.1%-0.5%+0.5%-0.5%0%0%+2%+2%+1%+1.3%+1.6%+0.3%-1.6%-1.6%+1.3%-0.3%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports-1.9%-0.9%-4%-1.3%-2%-14.4%-11.2%-15%-8.7%-12.1%-3.8%-2%-0.7%-2.3%-2.1%+4.8%+2.2%+4.2%+3.4%+3.7%
NOAA GFSat the 70 airports-14.2%-12.3%-14.2%-11.8%-12.8%-35.1%-35.1%-37.6%-31.2%-34.4%-1%-0.3%0%+1%0%-2.9%-3.8%-3%-0.6%-2.4%
NOAA HRRRat the 70 airports-3.3%-10.9%-18.7%-17.6%-12.4%-21.1%-29.3%-27.2%-23.4%-24.8%+1.7%-2.7%-5.4%-8.8%-4.9%-10.3%-12.9%-13.1%-11.9%-9.1%
NOAA NAMat the 70 airports-28%-24.5%-25.3%-18.5%-23.1%-44.3%-44.4%-42.7%-36.4%-41.2%+2%-2%-3%+2.3%-0.8%-18.1%-17.3%-18.3%-16.3%-14.4%
ECMWF IFSat the 70 airports-16.6%-12.3%-8.4%-5%-10%0%+1%-1.9%+2.6%+0.9%-3.4%-6.7%-4.4%-2.6%-4.2%+13.7%+3.9%+7.5%+2.7%+7%
ECMWF AIFSat the 70 airports+2.8%+7.7%+5.3%+6.7%+5.9%+3.1%+3.9%+1.9%+5.6%+4.1%-1.7%-3%-5.4%-3.9%-3.4%+8.6%+11.3%+12.7%+11.1%+11.1%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield-5.3%-4.8%-4.8%-4.2%-4.4%+1.4%+1.4%0%+1.3%+0.9%+3.7%+3.7%+4%+3.9%+4%-0.6%+0.7%+2.7%+1.2%+1.1%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 11, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of October 11, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked116,390 readings, 156 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day2,704,470 forecast hoursEach large miss explained581 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned35,518 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 116,390 readings, 156 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 2,704,470 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 581 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 35,518 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.31 F, the NBM 2.24 FBehind today by 0.07 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.12 F, the NBM 2.12 FLevel today
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.95 mph, the NBM 2.99 mphAhead today by 0.05 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 18.76 points, the NBM 18.70 pointsBehind today by 0.05 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station 52 in 100 hours, the NBM 52; off by 0.56 categories, the NBM 0.56Level today
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it73 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 56Too wide today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.52 against 0.54, 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.02
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.34 against 0.35 at 0.01 inchBehind today by 0.01
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forwardStorm Station 2.15 F, the NBM 2.11 F, the last reading carried forward 4.30 F, temperature 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.04 F

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

October 11, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, October 11, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMHRRRCorrectionGFSNBMECMWF IFSStorm StationNWS forecastECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, October 11, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hHRRRECMWF AIFSECMWF IFSNWS forecastNBMGFSStorm StationNAMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, October 11, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMGFSHRRRNWS forecastNBMCorrectionStorm StationECMWF IFSECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, October 11, 202601020301 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMHRRRNBMCorrectionGFSStorm StationECMWF IFSNWS forecastECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.4 F warmStorm Station0.5 F warmNWS forecast0.4 F warmGFS0.1 F warmHRRR0.1 F warmNAM0.3 F coolECMWF IFSevenECMWF AIFS0.3 F coolCorrection0.3 F warm

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM1.4 mph strongStorm Station1.3 mph strongNWS forecast1.1 mph strongGFS0.2 mph lightHRRR0.9 mph lightNAM0.7 mph lightECMWF IFS1.3 mph lightECMWF AIFS1.2 mph lightCorrection0.9 mph strong

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM0.8 F moistStorm Station0.6 F moistNWS forecast0.8 F moistGFS1.8 F dryHRRRevenNAM1.8 F moistECMWF IFS0.5 F moistECMWF AIFS0.2 F dryCorrection0.3 F moist

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM11.9 points clearStorm Station14.2 points clearNWS forecast12.7 points clearGFS0.8 points clearHRRR1.8 points cloudyNAM12.7 points clearECMWF IFS6.7 points clearECMWF AIFS6.0 points clearCorrection1.3 points cloudy

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KBPG Big Spring Mc Mahon-Wrinkle AirportTX0.6 F0.2 F warm100-
KNGP Naval Air Station Corpus Christi Truax FieldTX0.7 F0.3 F cool84-
KHBV Jim Hogg County AirportTX0.7 F0.4 F warm54-
KMTH Florida Keys Marathon International AirportFL0.7 F0.5 F cool100-
KINK Winkler County AirportTX0.7 F0.5 F cool100-
KBRO Brownsville South Padre Island International AirportTX0.7 F0.2 F cool100-
KGRY-0.7 F0.6 F cool16-
K2R9 Kenedy Regional AirportTX0.8 F0.1 F warm100-
PGSN-0.8 F0.2 F cool100-
KONM Socorro Municipal AirportNM0.8 F0.2 F cool84-
PAVL Kivalina AirportAK0.8 F0.1 F cool100-
PGWT-0.8 F0.3 F cool46-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KC99-17.2 F17.2 F cool100the forecast, at this station 20
K1NW-13.3 F13.3 F cool100the forecast, at this station 22
KO86 Trinity Center AirportCA10.5 F10.5 F cool100the forecast, at this station 8
KMWN-10.5 F10.5 F cool100cannot be told 10
KTMT Austin AirportNV9.5 F9.5 F cool100cannot be told 1
KPVC Provincetown Municipal AirportMA9.4 F9.4 F warm100the forecast, at this station 10
KTBX-9.3 F9.3 F warm100cannot be told 2
KGVW-9.2 F9.2 F warm70the station 7
K1S5 Sunnyside Municipal AirportWA8.8 F8.3 F cool84the forecast, at this station 3
KSXT-8.7 F8.7 F warm100-
KAXX Angel Fire AirportNM8.6 F7.6 F cool100-
KLGU Logan-Cache AirportUT8.4 F6.3 F cool88the forecast, at this station 6

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station41The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area24Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station364Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told152Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of October 11, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
KDAB16 UTC83 F32.0 F51.0 F high82.8 F4The station
K1NW22 UTC48 F84.0 F36.0 F low79.2 F4The forecast, at this station
K1NW21 UTC48 F83.8 F35.8 F low81.3 F3The forecast, at this station
K1NW23 UTC48 F81.1 F33.1 F low77.6 F5The forecast, at this station
K1NW20 UTC49 F81.9 F32.9 F low79.7 F2The forecast, at this station
K1NW19 UTC49 F79.7 F30.7 F low78.4 F1The forecast, at this station
K7L202 UTC62 F32.0 F30.0 F high-2The station
K1NW18 UTC48 F76.8 F28.8 F low75.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KC9919 UTC34 F59.0 F25.0 F low51.5 F1The forecast, at this station
K1NW17 UTC48 F72.9 F24.9 F low72.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KSUW02 UTC72 F49.1 F22.9 F high78.1 F2The station
K1NW16 UTC46 F68.5 F22.5 F low67.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KC9918 UTC33 F55.4 F22.4 F low51.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KC9921 UTC35 F57.2 F22.2 F low55.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KSUW00 UTC76 F54.9 F21.1 F high80.7 F6The station
K1NW15 UTC45 F65.1 F20.1 F low63.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KC9917 UTC32 F51.8 F19.8 F low48.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KSUW03 UTC71 F51.3 F19.7 F high77.5 F3The station
KC9920 UTC34 F53.6 F19.6 F low55.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KPVC07 UTC55 F36.0 F19.0 F high40.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KC9914 UTC24 F42.8 F18.8 F low41.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KC9915 UTC24 F42.8 F18.8 F low44.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KSUW01 UTC73 F54.3 F18.7 F high79.3 F1The station
KC9922 UTC35 F53.6 F18.6 F low51.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KC9923 UTC35 F53.6 F18.6 F low51.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KC9916 UTC28 F46.4 F18.4 F low46.5 F4The forecast, at this station
K1NW14 UTC43 F61.3 F18.3 F low58.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KBBG18 UTC88 F69.8 F18.2 F high84.3 F6The station
KC9909 UTC25 F42.8 F17.8 F low41.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KC9911 UTC25 F42.8 F17.8 F low41.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KC9912 UTC25 F42.8 F17.8 F low41.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KMZJ21 UTC70 F87.8 F17.8 F low84.0 F3The forecast, at this station
K1NW13 UTC41 F58.6 F17.6 F low57.5 F1The forecast, at this station
K1NW12 UTC42 F59.5 F17.5 F low56.4 F6The forecast, at this station
K1NW10 UTC42 F59.2 F17.2 F low54.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KMZJ18 UTC67 F84.2 F17.2 F low81.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KPVC08 UTC55 F37.9 F17.1 F high39.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KPVC09 UTC55 F37.9 F17.1 F high41.2 F3The forecast, at this station
KMZJ20 UTC69 F86.0 F17.0 F low82.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KMVY08 UTC52 F35.1 F16.9 F high40.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KDYT00 UTC74 F57.2 F16.8 F high80.3 F6The station
KDYT01 UTC74 F57.2 F16.8 F high79.2 F1The station
KGVW11 UTC64 F80.6 F16.6 F low67.7 F5The station
KGVW12 UTC64 F80.6 F16.6 F low65.9 F6The station
KMZJ17 UTC66 F82.4 F16.4 F low77.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KMWN12 UTC30 F46.4 F16.4 F low-6Cannot be told
KMZJ19 UTC68 F84.2 F16.2 F low81.8 F1The forecast, at this station
KPVC06 UTC54 F37.9 F16.1 F high40.9 F6The forecast, at this station
K1NW08 UTC43 F59.0 F16.0 F low57.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KC9910 UTC25 F41.0 F16.0 F low41.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KC9913 UTC25 F41.0 F16.0 F low41.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KMVY07 UTC52 F36.0 F16.0 F high39.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KPVC11 UTC55 F39.0 F16.0 F high41.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KDYT02 UTC73 F57.2 F15.8 F high78.0 F2The station
KC9904 UTC29 F44.6 F15.6 F low42.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KO8617 UTC38 F53.6 F15.6 F low48.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW10 UTC65 F80.6 F15.6 F low67.7 F4The station
KGVW13 UTC65 F80.6 F15.6 F low67.7 F1The station
K1NW11 UTC42 F57.4 F15.4 F low57.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KBIH13 UTC45 F60.1 F15.1 F low-1Cannot be told
KDLN00 UTC55 F39.9 F15.1 F high37.9 F6Cannot be told
KPVC10 UTC55 F39.9 F15.1 F high41.2 F4The forecast, at this station
K1NW09 UTC42 F57.0 F15.0 F low57.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KBIH12 UTC48 F63.0 F15.0 F low-6Cannot be told
KHON23 UTC74 F59.0 F15.0 F high70.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KLVM00 UTC56 F41.0 F15.0 F high40.3 F6The forecast, across the area
KMZJ13 UTC62 F77.0 F15.0 F low77.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KMZJ22 UTC71 F86.0 F15.0 F low85.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KMZJ23 UTC71 F86.0 F15.0 F low84.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KO8616 UTC35 F50.0 F15.0 F low44.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KPVC05 UTC54 F39.0 F15.0 F high41.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KTWM04 UTC66 F51.1 F14.9 F high74.6 F4The station
KTWM05 UTC66 F51.1 F14.9 F high73.8 F5The station
KC9905 UTC28 F42.8 F14.8 F low40.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KDYT03 UTC72 F57.2 F14.8 F high77.3 F3The station
KMWN10 UTC30 F44.6 F14.6 F low-4Cannot be told
KMWN11 UTC30 F44.6 F14.6 F low-5Cannot be told
KGVW08 UTC66 F80.6 F14.6 F low69.7 F2The station
KGVW09 UTC66 F80.6 F14.6 F low67.7 F3The station
KMZJ16 UTC66 F80.6 F14.6 F low77.8 F4The forecast, at this station
K1NW07 UTC45 F59.5 F14.5 F low59.4 F1The forecast, at this station
K1NW04 UTC52 F66.4 F14.4 F low61.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KO8614 UTC34 F48.2 F14.2 F low38.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KO8615 UTC34 F48.2 F14.2 F low38.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KPVC03 UTC54 F39.9 F14.1 F high42.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KPVC04 UTC54 F39.9 F14.1 F high42.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KTWM03 UTC67 F52.9 F14.1 F high75.2 F3The station
K1NW03 UTC54 F68.0 F14.0 F low65.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KBVO06 UTC69 F55.0 F14.0 F high67.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KC9907 UTC27 F41.0 F14.0 F low41.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KGGF08 UTC64 F50.0 F14.0 F high59.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KLGU09 UTC54 F68.0 F14.0 F low63.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KMVY06 UTC51 F37.0 F14.0 F high41.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KMZJ12 UTC63 F77.0 F14.0 F low78.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KMZJ14 UTC63 F77.0 F14.0 F low76.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KO8612 UTC36 F50.0 F14.0 F low39.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KFOK07 UTC56 F42.1 F13.9 F high48.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KMWN08 UTC29 F42.8 F13.8 F low-2Cannot be told
KTBX07 UTC53 F39.2 F13.8 F high-1Cannot be told
K1NW00 UTC64 F77.7 F13.7 F low75.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KTWM07 UTC65 F51.3 F13.7 F high72.0 F1The station
KAEG21 UTC78 F64.4 F13.6 F high76.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW07 UTC67 F80.6 F13.6 F low69.7 F1The station
K1NW06 UTC48 F61.5 F13.5 F low60.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KETH23 UTC67 F53.6 F13.4 F high61.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KMMH14 UTC33 F46.4 F13.4 F low-2Cannot be told
KAGZ21 UTC83 F69.8 F13.2 F high72.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KAGZ22 UTC83 F69.8 F13.2 F high74.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KO8613 UTC35 F48.2 F13.2 F low37.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KTMT13 UTC33 F46.2 F13.2 F low-1Cannot be told
KTWM01 UTC69 F55.8 F13.2 F high76.7 F1The station
KTWM06 UTC65 F51.8 F13.2 F high73.1 F6The station
KBVO04 UTC71 F57.9 F13.1 F high68.5 F4The station
KDLN01 UTC51 F37.9 F13.1 F high35.9 F1Cannot be told
KHIB13 UTC62 F48.9 F13.1 F high60.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KHYA08 UTC51 F37.9 F13.1 F high39.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KLVM01 UTC53 F39.9 F13.1 F high39.2 F1The forecast, across the area
KMVY04 UTC51 F37.9 F13.1 F high42.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KMVY05 UTC51 F37.9 F13.1 F high42.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KOLS01 UTC78 F64.9 F13.1 F high77.5 F1The station
KAGZ23 UTC81 F68.0 F13.0 F high73.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KBIH14 UTC44 F57.0 F13.0 F low-2Cannot be told
KBZN00 UTC54 F41.0 F13.0 F high41.1 F6The forecast, across the area
KDYT04 UTC72 F59.0 F13.0 F high76.2 F4The station
KFOK06 UTC54 F41.0 F13.0 F high47.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KHON22 UTC77 F64.0 F13.0 F high71.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KHYA07 UTC52 F39.0 F13.0 F high39.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KHYA11 UTC52 F39.0 F13.0 F high41.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KLGU10 UTC53 F66.0 F13.0 F low57.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KLGU12 UTC50 F63.0 F13.0 F low57.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KLVM02 UTC50 F37.0 F13.0 F high38.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KMVY03 UTC52 F39.0 F13.0 F high43.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KMVY09 UTC52 F39.0 F13.0 F high42.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KMZJ11 UTC64 F77.0 F13.0 F low78.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KO8611 UTC37 F50.0 F13.0 F low39.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KPVC02 UTC54 F41.0 F13.0 F high43.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KS3414 UTC28 F41.0 F13.0 F low-2Cannot be told
KSLK08 UTC43 F30.0 F13.0 F high32.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KTVY23 UTC63 F50.0 F13.0 F high56.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KVTN10 UTC65 F52.0 F13.0 F high58.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KPGA21 UTC75 F62.1 F12.9 F high-3Cannot be told
KC9903 UTC30 F42.8 F12.8 F low42.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KGGF10 UTC61 F48.2 F12.8 F high52.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KMWN09 UTC30 F42.8 F12.8 F low-3Cannot be told
KMZJ00 UTC75 F87.8 F12.8 F low82.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KO8610 UTC39 F51.8 F12.8 F low41.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KTWM08 UTC64 F51.3 F12.7 F high71.4 F2The station
K1S509 UTC41 F53.6 F12.6 F low44.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KTIF16 UTC70 F57.4 F12.6 F high-4Cannot be told
K9V921 UTC72 F59.5 F12.5 F high-3Cannot be told
K9V922 UTC72 F59.5 F12.5 F high-4Cannot be told
KTIF12 UTC60 F47.5 F12.5 F high-6Cannot be told
KTWM10 UTC63 F50.5 F12.5 F high69.2 F4The station
KAGZ02 UTC75 F62.6 F12.4 F high75.4 F2The station
KETN05 UTC70 F57.6 F12.4 F high69.2 F5The station
KMWN02 UTC25 F37.4 F12.4 F low-2Cannot be told
KMWN13 UTC34 F46.4 F12.4 F low-1Cannot be told
KU6823 UTC48 F35.6 F12.4 F high39.3 F5The forecast, at this station
K1S511 UTC40 F52.3 F12.3 F low43.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KONL21 UTC83 F70.7 F12.3 F high-3Cannot be told
KTWM09 UTC63 F50.7 F12.3 F high70.2 F3The station
K1NW01 UTC59 F71.2 F12.2 F low70.6 F1The forecast, at this station
K1S512 UTC40 F52.2 F12.2 F low44.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KC9906 UTC27 F39.2 F12.2 F low39.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KMWN05 UTC27 F39.2 F12.2 F low-5Cannot be told
KMWN06 UTC27 F39.2 F12.2 F low-6Cannot be told
KTVY22 UTC64 F51.8 F12.2 F high64.4 F4The forecast, at this station
K9V920 UTC72 F59.9 F12.1 F high-2Cannot be told
KBAN07 UTC39 F51.1 F12.1 F low-1Cannot be told
KBIH10 UTC50 F62.1 F12.1 F low-4Cannot be told
KHYA10 UTC52 F39.9 F12.1 F high41.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KMVY02 UTC52 F39.9 F12.1 F high44.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KMVY10 UTC52 F39.9 F12.1 F high41.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KOGA10 UTC61 F48.9 F12.1 F high54.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KPIR20 UTC68 F55.9 F12.1 F high-2Cannot be told
KPIR22 UTC68 F55.9 F12.1 F high-4Cannot be told
KSLK09 UTC43 F30.9 F12.1 F high32.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KTIF10 UTC63 F50.9 F12.1 F high-4Cannot be told
K8D323 UTC64 F52.0 F12.0 F high56.9 F5The forecast, across the area
KABR21 UTC66 F54.0 F12.0 F high-15Cannot be told
KACK07 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high39.5 F1The forecast, across the area
KBML15 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high46.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KCAG17 UTC60 F72.0 F12.0 F low66.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KCPR16 UTC57 F45.0 F12.0 F high-10Cannot be told
KGCN20 UTC60 F48.0 F12.0 F high-20Cannot be told
KGNA01 UTC64 F52.0 F12.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KHYA09 UTC51 F39.0 F12.0 F high41.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KLGU08 UTC56 F68.0 F12.0 F low66.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KLGU11 UTC52 F64.0 F12.0 F low56.9 F5The forecast, at this station
KLGU13 UTC49 F61.0 F12.0 F low55.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KMWN07 UTC29 F41.0 F12.0 F low-1Cannot be told
KMZJ15 UTC65 F77.0 F12.0 F low77.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KOGD23 UTC64 F52.0 F12.0 F high52.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KS3413 UTC29 F41.0 F12.0 F low-1Cannot be told
KSMN23 UTC46 F34.0 F12.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KTBX06 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KTWM02 UTC67 F55.0 F12.0 F high76.0 F2The station
KVTN17 UTC73 F61.0 F12.0 F high59.4 F23The forecast, across the area
KVTN18 UTC75 F63.0 F12.0 F high61.1 F24The forecast, at this station
KVTN19 UTC76 F64.0 F12.0 F high61.2 F25The forecast, across the area

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, October 11, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.52.52.62.5+0.456%234,972
Storm Station correction2.62.62.62.72.6+0.373%234,972
National Weather Service forecast2.12.22.32.42.3+0.4-6,950
NOAA GFS2.42.52.62.72.5+0.1-6,974
NOAA HRRR2.22.42.72.82.5+0.1-6,650
NOAA NAM2.72.72.82.82.8-0.3-6,650
ECMWF IFS2.52.52.42.52.5-0.0-2,228
ECMWF AIFS2.02.02.12.22.1-0.3-1,112
Storm Station lead2.12.32.32.52.3+0.562%6,950
NBM, at the 70 airports2.12.22.32.42.2+0.561%6,974
Correction, at the 70 airports2.32.32.42.52.4+1.070%6,974

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.12.22.22.42.2+0.864%234,372
Storm Station correction2.12.12.22.32.2+0.372%234,372
National Weather Service forecast2.22.32.52.52.4+0.8-6,967
NOAA GFS2.62.82.93.02.8-1.8-6,991
NOAA HRRR2.42.62.72.92.6-0.0-6,667
NOAA NAM2.83.03.03.13.0+1.8-6,667
ECMWF IFS1.92.02.22.32.1+0.5-2,232
ECMWF AIFS1.92.02.12.22.0-0.2-1,116
Storm Station lead1.92.02.12.32.1+0.670%6,967
NBM, at the 70 airports1.92.02.12.32.1+0.769%6,991
Correction, at the 70 airports2.12.22.32.52.3+0.470%6,991

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)3.03.03.03.13.0+1.451%234,940
Storm Station correction2.92.92.93.02.9+0.974%234,940
National Weather Service forecast3.03.03.03.13.1+1.1-6,962
NOAA GFS3.03.03.03.03.0-0.2-6,986
NOAA HRRR2.93.03.13.43.1-0.9-6,662
NOAA NAM2.93.03.13.03.0-0.7-6,662
ECMWF IFS3.03.23.13.23.1-1.3-2,232
ECMWF AIFS3.03.13.13.23.1-1.2-1,116
Storm Station lead2.92.93.03.03.0+1.3-6,962
NBM, at the 70 airports2.93.03.03.13.0+1.452%6,987
Correction, at the 70 airports2.82.92.93.02.9+0.874%6,987

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)19.620.320.720.420.2-11.954%120,690
Storm Station correction19.720.120.120.220.0+1.376%120,690
National Weather Service forecast16.917.918.318.918.0-12.7-5,739
NOAA GFS18.318.919.619.619.2-0.8-5,764
NOAA HRRR19.620.621.621.820.9+1.8-5,440
NOAA NAM21.021.422.622.722.0-12.7-5,440
ECMWF IFS15.417.517.619.017.4-6.7-1,812
ECMWF AIFS16.316.216.617.416.6-6.0-900
Storm Station lead17.818.619.419.318.8-14.2-5,740
NBM, at the 70 airports17.818.319.119.518.7-14.057%5,763
Correction, at the 70 airports14.314.915.415.815.1+1.182%5,763

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0570.0600.0630.0640.480.330.23
Storm Station lead0.0510.0530.0560.0650.520.340.26
NBM, at the 70 airports0.0490.0520.0540.0570.540.350.25

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
525
Where snow fell or was forecast
89
Mean miss, depth
2.8 in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in5316200.55
3 in311680.53
6 in121270.37

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.