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Live/Forecast engine/October 5, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

October 5, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 1,185 airfields, was level at 452 and further at 863. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,368 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on October 5, 2026: closer at 1,112, level at 427, further at 829; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,185 of 2,500 airfields closer than the NBM58 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more617
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F568
  3. level, within 0.1 F452
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F507
  5. further by 0.5 F or more356

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 1 of 70, level at 64 and further at 5. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,366 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on October 5, 2026: closer at 1,040, level at 497, further at 829; the 70 panel airports ringed

1,080 of 2,498 airfields closer than the NBM55 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more516
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F564
  3. level, within 0.1 F529
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F629
  5. further by 0.5 F or more260

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 1 of 70, level at 65 and further at 4. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,370 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on October 5, 2026: closer at 830, level at 510, further at 1,030; the 70 panel airports ringed

889 of 2,508 airfields closer than the NBM45 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more344
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph545
  3. level, within 0.1 mph538
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph738
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more343

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 20 of 70, level at 47 and further at 3. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 1,618 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on October 5, 2026: closer at 886, level at 301, further at 431; the 70 panel airports ringed

932 of 1,703 airfields closer than the NBM67 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more644
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points288
  3. level, within 1 point318
  4. further by 1 to 5 points199
  5. further by 5 points or more254

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast: closer at 3 of 64, level at 58 and further at 3. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on October 5, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 2.2 F on average, and within 5 F in 94 of every 100 hours. It ran 1.0 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
241,052
Readings checked
118,783
Readings that failed
303
Misses over 10 F
539

Who came closest on October 5, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after+10.0%Temperature2.0 FDew point2.0 FWind2.5 mphSky cover15.0 points
  2. 2NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature2.2 FDew point2.0 FWind2.6 mphSky cover20.7 points
  3. 3Storm StationThe engine’s own forecast, as every page prints it-0.1%Temperature2.2 FDew point2.1 FWind2.6 mphSky cover20.7 points
  4. 4National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database-0.4%Temperature2.1 FDew point2.2 FWind2.6 mphSky cover20.1 points
  5. 5NOAA GFS with HRRRNOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast-28.0%Temperature2.7 FDew point3.2 FWind2.7 mphSky cover26.0 points

Set aside on this day, each scored from fewer of the day’s forecasts than Storm Station and so not ranked beside it: NOAA GFS (5 of 8), NOAA HRRR (5 of 8), NOAA NAM (5 of 8), ECMWF IFS (5 of 8), ECMWF AIFS (5 of 8).

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, October 5, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports+0.5%-1%-1.8%-0.9%-0.8%-1.1%-1%-1%-1.9%-1.2%+1.9%+1.6%+0.8%+1.9%+1.5%-1.8%+0.1%+0.7%+1.8%+0.3%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports-0.5%-0.5%+4.1%+5.1%+2.3%-10.6%-10%-7.7%-7%-8.4%+1.6%+0.8%+0.8%+2.6%+1.3%+5.5%+5.9%+2.7%-0.7%+3.2%
NOAA GFS with HRRRat the 70 airports-14.3%-30.5%-26.4%-34.9%-27.3%-48.7%-60.5%-57.4%-60.5%-57.1%-0.8%-4.7%-2.3%-1.9%-2.4%-24.7%-23.8%-22.5%-29%-25.2%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield+4.3%+6%+6.6%+7.5%+6%+7%+6.4%+4.5%+6.3%+5.8%+0.4%+0.4%+0.8%+0.8%+0.8%+9.3%+10.4%+11.5%+11.2%+10.6%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 5, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of October 5, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked118,783 readings, 303 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day2,646,860 forecast hoursEach large miss explained539 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned34,843 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 118,783 readings, 303 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 2,646,860 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 539 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 34,843 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.18 F, the NBM 2.16 FBehind today by 0.02 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.06 F, the NBM 2.04 FBehind today by 0.02 F
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.58 mph, the NBM 2.61 mphAhead today by 0.04 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 20.68 points, the NBM 20.74 pointsAhead today by 0.06 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station -, the NBM -; off by - categories, the NBM -Not yet scored
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it68 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 49On target today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.41 against 0.43, 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.02
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.24 against 0.28 at 0.01 inchBehind today by 0.03
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forward-Not yet scored

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

October 5, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, October 5, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hHRRRGFS with HRRRNAMNBMECMWF IFSCorrectionGFSStorm StationECMWF AIFSNWS forecast
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, October 5, 202602461 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hECMWF IFSECMWF AIFSGFSHRRRNAMGFS with HRRRStorm StationNWS forecastNBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, October 5, 202602461 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNAMHRRRGFS with HRRRGFSECMWF IFSNBMECMWF AIFSCorrectionNWS forecastStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, October 5, 20260102030401 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hHRRRNAMGFS with HRRRGFSNBMECMWF IFSCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationECMWF AIFS
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS NOAA HRRR NOAA NAM ECMWF IFS ECMWF AIFS NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.1 F coolStorm Station1.0 F coolNWS forecast1.0 F coolGFS0.2 F coolHRRR1.3 F coolNAM0.1 F coolECMWF IFS0.9 F coolECMWF AIFS0.7 F coolGFS with HRRR1.4 F coolCorrection0.2 F cool

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.3 mph strongStorm Station0.3 mph strongNWS forecast0.2 mph strongGFS0.3 mph lightHRRR1.0 mph lightNAM0.5 mph lightECMWF IFS1.5 mph lightECMWF AIFS1.0 mph lightGFS with HRRR0.8 mph lightCorrectioneven

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM1.0 F moistStorm Station0.6 F moistNWS forecast0.6 F moistGFS2.5 F dryHRRR1.3 F dryNAM4.1 F moistECMWF IFS0.8 F moistECMWF AIFS0.3 F dryGFS with HRRR1.5 F dryCorrection0.6 F moist

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM16.9 points clearStorm Station17.0 points clearNWS forecast15.8 points clearGFS13.4 points clearHRRR10.2 points clearNAM14.1 points clearECMWF IFS14.2 points clearECMWF AIFS11.1 points clearGFS with HRRR9.6 points clearCorrection3.1 points clear

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
PAFE Kake AirportAK0.5 F0.1 F warm100-
PAAK Atka AirportAK0.6 F0.2 F warm100-
TIST-0.6 F0.4 F cool96-
PASA Savoonga AirportAK0.6 F0.2 F cool100-
KPHX Phoenix Sky Harbor International AirportAZ0.7 F0.2 F warm96-
PHLI Lihue AirportHI0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
KSYM Morehead-Rowan County Clyde A. Thomas Regional AirportKY0.7 F0.7 F warm16-
KBID Block Island State AirportRI0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
KFLL Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International AirportFL0.7 F0.3 F cool100-
PADU Tom Madsen (Dutch Harbor) AirportAK0.7 F0.2 F warm100-
PHNL Daniel K. Inouye International AirportHI0.7 F0.4 F cool100-
KSRQ Sarasota Bradenton International AirportFL0.7 F0.2 F cool100-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KNSI San Nicolas Island Nolf AirportCA9.8 F9.8 F cool75cannot be told 8
KFBL Faribault Municipal Airport-Liz Wall Strohfus FieldMN6.7 F6.7 F warm63-
KSMN Lemhi County AirportID6.7 F6.6 F warm100cannot be told 1
KMFR Rogue Valley International-Medford AirportOR6.5 F6.4 F warm100-
PADE Deering AirportAK6.5 F5.5 F warm100cannot be told 6
KS52 Methow Valley State AirportWA6.4 F6.3 F warm100cannot be told 2
KBEH Southwest Michigan Regional AirportMI6.2 F6.2 F warm100the forecast, at this station 1
KLVM Mission FieldMT6.2 F1.8 F warm100the forecast, at this station 2
K7S0 Ronan AirportMT6.1 F5.2 F warm100the forecast, at this station 2
KAFO Afton Municipal AirportWY5.8 F4.6 F warm100the forecast, at this station 4
KFOT Rohnerville AirportCA5.8 F5.8 F warm100cannot be told 7
KVWU Waskish Municipal AirportMN5.8 F5.0 F warm100the forecast, at this station 2

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station39The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area2Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station362Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told136Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of October 5, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
KNUC18 UTC78 F-18.4 F96.4 F high94.8 F6The station
KGVW12 UTC51 F77.0 F26.0 F low71.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW10 UTC52 F77.0 F25.0 F low71.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW09 UTC53 F77.0 F24.0 F low72.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW11 UTC52 F75.2 F23.2 F low71.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW08 UTC54 F77.0 F23.0 F low74.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW07 UTC55 F77.0 F22.0 F low74.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW06 UTC56 F77.0 F21.0 F low74.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW04 UTC58 F78.8 F20.8 F low76.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW05 UTC58 F78.8 F20.8 F low75.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW13 UTC57 F77.0 F20.0 F low71.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW03 UTC60 F78.8 F18.8 F low76.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW02 UTC62 F80.6 F18.6 F low76.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KO2606 UTC75 F57.2 F17.8 F high-6The station
KO2607 UTC73 F55.4 F17.6 F high-1The station
KO2603 UTC80 F62.6 F17.4 F high-3The station
KO2610 UTC69 F51.8 F17.2 F high-4The station
KSIY06 UTC73 F55.9 F17.1 F high59.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KNRS18 UTC81 F98.1 F17.1 F low99.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW14 UTC60 F77.0 F17.0 F low74.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KHLN19 UTC74 F57.0 F17.0 F high80.8 F1The station
KO2608 UTC72 F55.4 F16.6 F high-2Cannot be told
KGVW01 UTC64 F80.6 F16.6 F low76.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KO2609 UTC70 F53.6 F16.4 F high-3Cannot be told
K1HM11 UTC52 F68.0 F16.0 F low56.2 F5The forecast, at this station
K1MM14 UTC61 F45.0 F16.0 F high61.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KLGU13 UTC57 F41.0 F16.0 F high60.1 F1The station
KMEH15 UTC52 F36.0 F16.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KSNT17 UTC61 F45.0 F16.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KSNT18 UTC68 F52.0 F16.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KLLR00 UTC67 F82.4 F15.4 F low-6Cannot be told
KMZJ19 UTC76 F91.4 F15.4 F low91.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KO2604 UTC78 F62.6 F15.4 F high-4Cannot be told
KMZJ20 UTC78 F93.2 F15.2 F low92.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KSBX13 UTC51 F66.2 F15.2 F low56.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KTOA01 UTC85 F69.8 F15.2 F high94.3 F1The station
KJDN13 UTC53 F37.9 F15.1 F high-1Cannot be told
KBTM16 UTC58 F43.0 F15.0 F high62.0 F4The station
KJDN14 UTC56 F41.0 F15.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KMZJ22 UTC80 F95.0 F15.0 F low93.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KNSI16 UTC73 F88.0 F15.0 F low-4Cannot be told
PADE09 UTC33 F18.0 F15.0 F high-21Cannot be told
K1HM14 UTC53 F67.5 F14.5 F low57.4 F2The forecast, at this station
K1HM13 UTC52 F66.4 F14.4 F low56.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KAFO15 UTC50 F35.6 F14.4 F high44.0 F3The forecast, at this station
PADG22 UTC23 F37.4 F14.4 F low-4Cannot be told
K41U12 UTC53 F38.8 F14.2 F high56.1 F6The station
KEMT01 UTC93 F78.8 F14.2 F high96.2 F1The station
KMZJ21 UTC79 F93.2 F14.2 F low93.4 F3The forecast, at this station
KMEH16 UTC61 F46.9 F14.1 F high-4Cannot be told
KHLN21 UTC81 F66.9 F14.1 F high82.6 F3The station
KBTM15 UTC51 F37.0 F14.0 F high48.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KMZJ17 UTC72 F86.0 F14.0 F low86.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KNFG14 UTC75 F61.0 F14.0 F high73.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KNSI00 UTC77 F91.0 F14.0 F low-6Cannot be told
KO2602 UTC82 F68.0 F14.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KSFO23 UTC86 F72.0 F14.0 F high89.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KSIY05 UTC75 F61.0 F14.0 F high62.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KNRS17 UTC81 F95.0 F14.0 F low94.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KLGU10 UTC58 F44.1 F13.9 F high61.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KNFG12 UTC76 F62.1 F13.9 F high75.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KSNT19 UTC74 F60.1 F13.9 F high-1Cannot be told
KFOT05 UTC62 F48.2 F13.8 F high-5Cannot be told
KLLR01 UTC65 F78.8 F13.8 F low-1Cannot be told
KMZJ18 UTC74 F87.8 F13.8 F low89.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KMZJ00 UTC78 F91.4 F13.4 F low92.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KO0514 UTC51 F64.4 F13.4 F low-2Cannot be told
KAFO16 UTC58 F44.6 F13.4 F high51.5 F4The forecast, at this station
KO2605 UTC76 F62.6 F13.4 F high-5Cannot be told
KO2611 UTC67 F53.6 F13.4 F high-5Cannot be told
KHCR14 UTC52 F38.8 F13.2 F high55.8 F2The station
KMZJ23 UTC80 F93.2 F13.2 F low93.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KLGD13 UTC53 F39.9 F13.1 F high44.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KSIY07 UTC71 F57.9 F13.1 F high59.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KTMT07 UTC53 F39.9 F13.1 F high-1Cannot be told
PADE08 UTC33 F19.9 F13.1 F high-20Cannot be told
KNRS19 UTC83 F96.1 F13.1 F low101.7 F7The forecast, at this station
KBKE06 UTC59 F46.0 F13.0 F high55.8 F6Cannot be told
KGVW15 UTC64 F77.0 F13.0 F low76.7 F3The forecast, at this station
KHLN17 UTC65 F52.0 F13.0 F high76.2 F5The station
KLGU14 UTC56 F43.0 F13.0 F high59.0 F2Cannot be told
KLVM06 UTC58 F45.0 F13.0 F high48.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KNFG09 UTC77 F64.0 F13.0 F high77.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KNFG10 UTC77 F64.0 F13.0 F high77.2 F4The station
KNFG11 UTC76 F63.0 F13.0 F high75.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KNSI17 UTC75 F88.0 F13.0 F low-5Cannot be told
KNSI20 UTC82 F95.0 F13.0 F low-2Cannot be told
KNSI21 UTC82 F95.0 F13.0 F low-3Cannot be told
KRAP03 UTC59 F72.0 F13.0 F low59.6 F3The station
KSFO22 UTC86 F73.0 F13.0 F high91.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KSMO18 UTC86 F99.0 F13.0 F low95.8 F6The forecast, at this station
PABR04 UTC27 F14.0 F13.0 F high-16Cannot be told
PABR07 UTC27 F14.0 F13.0 F high-19Cannot be told
PADE11 UTC29 F16.0 F13.0 F high-5Cannot be told
PADE18 UTC31 F18.0 F13.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KLAX19 UTC88 F100.9 F12.9 F low99.7 F7The forecast, at this station
KLGD15 UTC55 F42.1 F12.9 F high44.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KLGU12 UTC57 F44.1 F12.9 F high60.1 F6The station
KMEH14 UTC48 F35.1 F12.9 F high37.6 F2The forecast, at this station
KNFG13 UTC75 F62.1 F12.9 F high75.7 F1The forecast, at this station
KTMT08 UTC51 F38.1 F12.9 F high-2Cannot be told
KFOT07 UTC61 F48.2 F12.8 F high-1Cannot be told
KGVW00 UTC66 F78.8 F12.8 F low76.7 F6The forecast, at this station
K10U15 UTC59 F46.4 F12.6 F high-3Cannot be told
KS5219 UTC70 F57.4 F12.6 F high-1Cannot be told
K1NW00 UTC64 F76.5 F12.5 F low76.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KO5402 UTC84 F71.6 F12.4 F high75.9 F2The forecast, at this station
K41U15 UTC59 F46.6 F12.4 F high61.2 F3The station
KFXY10 UTC48 F35.6 F12.4 F high40.9 F22The forecast, at this station
KO2612 UTC66 F53.6 F12.4 F high-6Cannot be told
KHCR13 UTC52 F39.7 F12.3 F high56.4 F1The station
KJAQ14 UTC71 F83.3 F12.3 F low59.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KO2613 UTC64 F51.8 F12.2 F high-1Cannot be told
KTBX16 UTC54 F66.2 F12.2 F low-4Cannot be told
KHCR12 UTC52 F39.9 F12.1 F high56.2 F6The station
KPHP14 UTC59 F46.9 F12.1 F high-2Cannot be told
KSMN15 UTC52 F39.9 F12.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KWMC09 UTC61 F48.9 F12.1 F high-3Cannot be told
KNSI18 UTC77 F89.1 F12.1 F low-6Cannot be told
KSIY04 UTC77 F64.9 F12.1 F high64.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KNZY19 UTC86 F98.1 F12.1 F low101.8 F7The forecast, at this station
KAAT08 UTC58 F46.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KAFO02 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high58.5 F2The forecast, at this station
KAFO14 UTC44 F32.0 F12.0 F high39.2 F2The forecast, at this station
KBBW05 UTC57 F45.0 F12.0 F high52.8 F17The forecast, at this station
KBEH10 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high46.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KBIH08 UTC60 F72.0 F12.0 F low-2Cannot be told
KCAG09 UTC48 F36.0 F12.0 F high45.2 F21The forecast, at this station
KFOT04 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KFOT06 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high-6Cannot be told
KFOT17 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KFXY05 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high46.1 F17The forecast, at this station
KHLN20 UTC78 F66.0 F12.0 F high82.4 F2The station
KLGD11 UTC55 F43.0 F12.0 F high46.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KLGD16 UTC60 F48.0 F12.0 F high54.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KMEH11 UTC49 F37.0 F12.0 F high39.8 F5Cannot be told
KMEH12 UTC48 F36.0 F12.0 F high40.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KMEH13 UTC48 F36.0 F12.0 F high39.8 F1Cannot be told
KNSI19 UTC79 F91.0 F12.0 F low-7Cannot be told
KNSI23 UTC81 F93.0 F12.0 F low-5Cannot be told
KO5401 UTC89 F77.0 F12.0 F high81.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KOKB19 UTC87 F99.0 F12.0 F low101.7 F7The forecast, at this station
KPQN03 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high46.5 F15The forecast, at this station
KPQN05 UTC51 F39.0 F12.0 F high43.5 F17The forecast, at this station
KRAP01 UTC65 F77.0 F12.0 F low66.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KS5220 UTC73 F61.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KTRM07 UTC85 F73.0 F12.0 F high79.1 F1The forecast, at this station
PABR05 UTC26 F14.0 F12.0 F high-17Cannot be told
PABR06 UTC26 F14.0 F12.0 F high-18Cannot be told
PADE12 UTC31 F19.0 F12.0 F high-24Cannot be told
PADE17 UTC30 F18.0 F12.0 F high-5Cannot be told
KAVX18 UTC82 F93.9 F11.9 F low91.9 F6The forecast, at this station
KBIH07 UTC64 F75.9 F11.9 F low-1Cannot be told
K8D308 UTC47 F35.1 F11.9 F high39.3 F20The forecast, at this station
KBBW07 UTC56 F44.1 F11.9 F high52.6 F19The forecast, at this station
KBTM14 UTC47 F35.1 F11.9 F high44.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KLVM03 UTC63 F51.1 F11.9 F high60.2 F3The forecast, at this station
KSNT15 UTC45 F33.1 F11.9 F high-3Cannot be told
KPWC13 UTC42 F30.2 F11.8 F high33.2 F25The forecast, at this station
KVWU13 UTC42 F30.2 F11.8 F high28.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KEKS18 UTC67 F78.8 F11.8 F low70.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KFOT09 UTC60 F48.2 F11.8 F high-3Cannot be told
KHCR11 UTC53 F41.2 F11.8 F high57.3 F5The station
KMZJ01 UTC76 F87.8 F11.8 F low89.9 F1The forecast, at this station
K41U14 UTC55 F43.3 F11.7 F high54.2 F2The forecast, at this station
K41U13 UTC54 F42.4 F11.6 F high53.1 F1The forecast, at this station
K46U12 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high40.5 F6The forecast, at this station
K7S016 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high44.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KFXY09 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high41.2 F21The forecast, at this station
KFXY13 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high40.8 F25The forecast, at this station
KMGC13 UTC58 F46.4 F11.6 F high48.6 F1The forecast, at this station
KMWM09 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high41.0 F21The forecast, at this station
KPNA06 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high44.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KSZT14 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high43.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KVWU12 UTC40 F28.4 F11.6 F high28.9 F18The forecast, at this station
KMZJ16 UTC69 F80.6 F11.6 F low83.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KPQN02 UTC55 F43.5 F11.5 F high49.1 F14The forecast, at this station
KPQN04 UTC52 F40.5 F11.5 F high45.1 F16The forecast, at this station
KBCK05 UTC49 F37.6 F11.4 F high43.6 F17The forecast, at this station
KCKP04 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high48.0 F16The forecast, at this station
KFXY11 UTC47 F35.6 F11.4 F high40.8 F23The forecast, at this station
KMGC07 UTC56 F44.6 F11.4 F high46.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KPNA07 UTC47 F35.6 F11.4 F high44.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KTMT12 UTC43 F31.6 F11.4 F high-6Cannot be told
KWYS11 UTC38 F26.6 F11.4 F high-5Cannot be told
KWYS12 UTC38 F26.6 F11.4 F high-6Cannot be told
K1AM06 UTC62 F50.7 F11.3 F high56.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KPQN06 UTC50 F38.7 F11.3 F high42.2 F18The forecast, at this station
K7S002 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high56.9 F2The forecast, at this station
K9Y112 UTC45 F33.8 F11.2 F high43.8 F24The forecast, at this station
KADU13 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high43.0 F25The forecast, at this station
KBCK04 UTC50 F38.8 F11.2 F high45.8 F16The forecast, at this station
KEKS17 UTC64 F75.2 F11.2 F low64.0 F5Cannot be told
KFOT03 UTC63 F51.8 F11.2 F high-3Cannot be told
KFXY04 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high47.9 F16The forecast, at this station
KHPT04 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high48.1 F16The forecast, at this station
KJYG04 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high49.4 F16The forecast, at this station
KMGC11 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high45.1 F5The forecast, at this station
KMGC12 UTC54 F42.8 F11.2 F high44.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KMZJ02 UTC73 F84.2 F11.2 F low86.4 F2The forecast, at this station

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, October 5, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.32.32.62.72.5-0.149%241,052
Storm Station correction2.22.22.42.52.3-0.268%241,052
National Weather Service forecast2.02.02.12.22.1-1.0-6,938
NOAA GFS2.42.42.42.52.4-0.2-5,069
NOAA HRRR2.52.62.83.32.7-1.3-4,850
NOAA NAM2.72.72.73.12.8-0.1-4,850
ECMWF IFS2.42.32.12.52.3-0.9-2,565
ECMWF AIFS2.22.32.62.32.4-0.7-1,872
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.32.62.83.22.8-1.4-6,938
Storm Station lead2.02.02.22.42.2-1.057%6,938
NBM, at the 70 airports2.02.02.22.42.2-1.056%6,937
Correction, at the 70 airports1.91.92.12.22.0-0.570%6,937

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.32.42.42.52.4+1.061%240,176
Storm Station correction2.12.22.32.42.3+0.672%240,176
National Weather Service forecast2.12.22.32.32.2+0.6-6,962
NOAA GFS3.33.43.33.43.3-2.5-5,084
NOAA HRRR2.83.23.43.53.1-1.3-4,865
NOAA NAM4.64.64.54.64.6+4.1-4,865
ECMWF IFS2.42.22.33.12.5+0.8-2,577
ECMWF AIFS2.32.02.12.42.2-0.3-1,879
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.83.23.33.53.2-1.5-6,962
Storm Station lead1.92.02.12.22.1+0.669%6,962
NBM, at the 70 airports1.92.02.12.12.0+0.668%6,963
Correction, at the 70 airports1.91.92.12.12.0+0.673%6,963

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.42.42.52.52.5+0.351%241,022
Storm Station correction2.42.42.42.52.4-0.070%241,022
National Weather Service forecast2.52.62.62.62.6+0.2-6,917
NOAA GFS2.72.72.83.02.8-0.3-5,049
NOAA HRRR2.62.72.72.92.7-1.0-4,830
NOAA NAM2.62.62.62.92.6-0.5-4,830
ECMWF IFS2.82.72.73.52.9-1.5-2,561
ECMWF AIFS2.72.62.53.32.8-1.0-1,865
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.62.72.72.72.7-0.8-6,917
Storm Station lead2.52.52.62.62.6+0.3-6,917
NBM, at the 70 airports2.62.62.62.72.6+0.349%6,914
Correction, at the 70 airports2.52.52.52.62.5-0.269%6,914

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)24.825.425.525.825.4-16.947%94,330
Storm Station correction22.522.822.622.922.7-3.172%94,330
National Weather Service forecast19.419.620.220.920.1-15.8-4,568
NOAA GFS26.327.627.326.526.9-13.4-3,370
NOAA HRRR26.826.428.728.127.3-10.2-3,151
NOAA NAM23.623.827.227.625.1-14.1-3,151
ECMWF IFS23.324.223.723.323.7-14.2-1,684
ECMWF AIFS19.720.421.520.320.5-11.1-1,230
NOAA GFS with HRRR25.625.825.526.826.0-9.6-4,568
Storm Station lead20.920.820.720.420.7-17.0-4,568
NBM, at the 70 airports20.520.820.820.820.7-17.149%4,570
Correction, at the 70 airports14.514.815.015.515.0-2.379%4,570

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0250.0260.0270.0280.410.330.12
NOAA HRRR0.0340.0210.0070.0060.520.32-0.00
ECMWF IFS0.0450.0410.0300.0410.430.340.00
NOAA GFS with HRRR0.0170.0180.0180.0190.290.250.05
Storm Station lead0.0140.0150.0170.0190.410.240.17
NBM, at the 70 airports0.0130.0150.0160.0170.430.280.20

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
314
Where snow fell or was forecast
1
Mean miss, depth
4.0 in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in0100.00
3 in0100.00
6 in000-

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.