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Live/Forecast engine/October 1, 2026

Forecast engine

Storm Station’s own forecast, set every day beside NOAA’s National Blend of Models, the National Weather Service forecast, NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM, and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS, and scored against what the airfields reported, hour by hour. Who came closest, by how much, where, why, and how the engine learns from it. A reading is first checked against the stations around it, so a faulty instrument never counts against a forecast.

Where Storm Station came closer than the NBM

October 1, 2026, the latest day scored, every airfield against what it reported, hour by hour. For temperature, Storm Station came closer than the NBM at 999 airfields, was level at 338 and further at 1,166. Blue is closer, red further, gray level; the brighter the dot, the larger the gap. Scored each morning for the day before.

Every one of 2,369 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s temperature forecast came than the NBM on October 1, 2026: closer at 951, level at 317, further at 1,101; the 70 panel airports ringed

999 of 2,503 airfields closer than the NBM46 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more487
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F512
  3. level, within 0.1 F338
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F543
  5. further by 0.5 F or more623

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 27 of 70, level at 14 and further at 29. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,369 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s dew point forecast came than the NBM on October 1, 2026: closer at 703, level at 406, further at 1,260; the 70 panel airports ringed

736 of 2,503 airfields closer than the NBM35 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 F or more315
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 F421
  3. level, within 0.1 F425
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 F707
  5. further by 0.5 F or more635

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 25 of 70, level at 12 and further at 33. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,365 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s wind forecast came than the NBM on October 1, 2026: closer at 783, level at 467, further at 1,115; the 70 panel airports ringed

839 of 2,505 airfields closer than the NBM42 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 0.5 mph or more325
  2. closer by 0.1 to 0.5 mph514
  3. level, within 0.1 mph491
  4. further by 0.1 to 0.5 mph693
  5. further by 0.5 mph or more482

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 40 of 70, level at 13 and further at 17. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

Every one of 2,061 airfields on the map of the country, coloured by how much closer or further Storm Station’s sky cover forecast came than the NBM on October 1, 2026: closer at 36, level at 2,008, further at 17; the 70 panel airports ringed

36 of 2,175 airfields closer than the NBM68 in 100 of those not level

  1. closer by 5 points or more16
  2. closer by 1 to 5 points20
  3. level, within 1 point2,122
  4. further by 1 to 5 points9
  5. further by 5 points or more8

At the 70 panel airports, ringed, Storm Station’s own forecast (this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it): closer at 36 of 67, level at 14 and further at 17. Elsewhere, its correction of the NBM, scored on the same hours. Point to an airfield for its figures; choose it for its page.

How close was Storm Station on October 1, 2026?

The temperature Storm Station forecast was off by 1.9 F on average, and within 5 F in 95 of every 100 hours. It ran 0.4 F cool.

Hours of reports
24 of 24
Temperature forecasts scored
243,721
Readings checked
118,091
Readings that failed
169
Misses over 10 F
500

Who came closest on October 1, 2026

Every forecast at the same 70 airports, every hour of the day, against what the airports reported. The bar is how much closer than the NBM each came, to the right, or further, to the left, over temperature, dew point, wind and sky cover together.

  1. 1Storm StationOn this day, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR, as the cards then printed it+2.7%Temperature1.9 FDew point1.9 FWind2.4 mphSky cover17.0 points
  2. 2NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, the national referenceReferenceTemperature1.9 FDew point1.8 FWind2.7 mphSky cover18.7 points
  3. 3National Weather Service forecastEach forecast office’s gridded forecast, the National Digital Forecast Database-1.1%Temperature2.0 FDew point1.9 FWind2.6 mphSky cover18.4 points
  4. 4Storm Station correctionThe NBM with each station’s habit taken out, learned the day after-7.2%Temperature2.1 FDew point2.1 FWind2.9 mphSky cover18.7 points
  5. 5NOAA GFS with HRRRNOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast-29.3%Temperature2.4 FDew point3.0 FWind2.8 mphSky cover23.4 points

Every forecast, every day

The mean miss of each forecast on each day scored, all at the same 70 airports, over every hour ahead. Lower is closer. Choose a figure; choose a forecast below to show or hide it. Point to a day for its figures.

Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the temperature, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1234FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRNAMHRRRGFSIFSStorm StationNBMNWS forecastCorrectionAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the dew point, F, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.0246FSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFS with HRRRGFSNAMHRRRCorrectionNWS forecastStorm StationNBMIFSAIFS
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the wind, mph, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.1.522.533.54mphSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14AIFSIFSHRRRNAMGFSGFS with HRRRNBMNWS forecastCorrectionStorm Station
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 1Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 9Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection
Mean miss of every forecast of the sky cover, points, at the same 70 airports, each day scored from September 29, 2026 to October 14, 2026. Lower is closer.10203040pointsSep 29Oct 3Oct 7Oct 11Oct 14GFSNAMGFS with HRRRIFSHRRRStorm StationNBMNWS forecastAIFSCorrection

What changed

  1. Oct 13 is the first day all eight of its forecasts carry the NBM on Storm Station’s own hours, and from it the targets for sky cover in its category and for the first six hours compare Storm Station with that NBM.
  2. From the forecasts of 07 UTC Oct 11, the NBM is also scored on Storm Station’s own hours: the cycle Storm Station was made from, counted from the same hour. Until then the NBM was scored only from its own cycle, an hour earlier.
  3. Oct 11 is the first day the first six hours are also scored against the last reading carried forward, the measure the first hours must beat (T8).
  4. Oct 11 is the first day sky cover is also scored as the airport reports it: each forecast’s cover put in the category the airport’s sensor would report, from clear to overcast, against the category it reported.
  5. From the forecasts of 13 UTC on, Storm Station is made from the NBM’s cycle of the hour before each forecast, the newest posted; until then it was made from the cycle of two hours before, while the NBM is scored from its own cycle of the hour.
  6. Oct 6 is the first day each of the five models is scored from all eight of the day’s forecasts, so each is ranked beside Storm Station.
  7. NOAA GFS with HRRR, the two models laid together as one forecast, retired. Its days are kept as scored.
  8. From the forecasts of Oct 5 on, the five models are read from NOAA’s and ECMWF’s own published runs.
  9. NOAA’s GFS, HRRR and NAM and ECMWF’s IFS and AIFS joined, each compared on its own, from the forecasts of 19 UTC. A day that holds a model from fewer forecasts than Storm Station sets it aside.
  10. Storm Station became the engine’s own forecast at the forecasts of 13 UTC; before them it was the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. Oct 3 and Oct 4 are scored from both, so its line changes meaning there.

Scorecard

Each forecast set against the NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM), the national reference, at the same places, figure by figure and by how many hours ahead it was made. A blue dot is closer than the NBM, a red one further, a gray one level; the larger the dot, the larger the gap. Point to one for both misses.

Each forecast against the NBM, October 1, 2026: how much closer (+) or further (-) its mean miss was, by figure and hours ahead
ForecastTemperatureDew pointWindSky cover
1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All1 to 67 to 1213 to 1819 to 25All
Storm Stationat the 70 airports; by hours ahead from October 3-----0.6%-----6.5%----+8.5%----+9.3%
National Weather Service forecastat the 70 airports; by hours ahead from October 3-----2.9%-----4.3%----+1.1%----+1.9%
NOAA GFS with HRRRat the 70 airports; by hours ahead from October 3-----23.8%-----62.8%-----5.6%-----24.8%
Storm Station correctionat every airfield-4.1%-3.1%-2.2%-1.3%-2.7%-7.5%-7.7%-7.9%-5.9%-7.6%-3.1%-3.8%-3.8%-3.8%-3.8%0%0%0%0%0%
  • 10% or more closer
  • 5 to 10% closer
  • 1 to 5% closer
  • level
  • 1 to 5% further
  • 5 to 10% further
  • 10% or more further

How the engine works

Everything the engine reads, and what happens to it. Readings are checked against the stations around them before they count. The forecast is served on every page, scored the next day against what happened, and every large miss is explained. What it learns becomes a challenger, and replaces the lead only when it wins over 14 days by a margin the test says is not luck. The counts are October 1, 2026’s.

How the Storm Station forecast engine works, with the counts of October 1, 2026: what it measures and reads, how readings are checked, how its forecast is served, scored the next day, explained, learned from, and changed only by testMeasured and forecastChecked and servedScoredLearnedAirfield reportsevery hour, every airportWeather stationsevery open network heardRadarevery few minutesRain and hail analysisradars and gauges, every hourNOAA National Blend of ModelsNBM, four cycles a dayNational Weather Service forecastcompared every dayNOAA and ECMWF modelsGFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: comparedChecked118,091 readings, 169 set asideWhat happened24 of 24 hours, hour by hourStorm Station engineevery input, each place, each hourServedevery page, card and answerScored the next day1,780,748 forecast hoursEach large miss explained500 over 10 F, who was wrongLearned36,550 figures, 17 days keptChallengerscored beside the leadPromoted by test14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

  1. Measured

    • Airfield reports every hour, every airport
    • Weather stations every open network heard
    • Radar every few minutes
    • Rain and hail analysis radars and gauges, every hour

  2. Forecast

    • NOAA National Blend of Models NBM, four cycles a day
    • National Weather Service forecast compared every day
    • NOAA and ECMWF models GFS, HRRR, NAM, IFS, AIFS: compared
    • Storm Station engine every input, each place, each hour
    • Served every page, card and answer

  3. Checked

    • Checked 118,091 readings, 169 set aside
    • What happened 24 of 24 hours, hour by hour

  4. Scored

    • Scored the next day 1,780,748 forecast hours
    • Each large miss explained 500 over 10 F, who was wrong

  5. Learned

    • Learned 36,550 figures, 17 days kept
    • Challenger scored beside the lead
    • Promoted by test 14 days, under 5 in 100 by chance

The targets

Storm Station sets out to be closer than the NBM, the strongest forecast the country publishes, on every figure. A target counts as reached only when it is ahead over 14 days or more by a margin the test says is not luck. Today’s standing, at the same airports:

  1. T1Temperature closer than the NBMStorm Station 1.95 F, the NBM 1.94 FBehind today by 0.01 F
  2. T2Dew point closer than the NBMStorm Station 1.94 F, the NBM 1.82 FBehind today by 0.12 F
  3. T3Wind closer than the NBMStorm Station 2.44 mph, the NBM 2.67 mphAhead today by 0.23 mph
  4. T4Sky cover closer than the NBMStorm Station 16.96 points, the NBM 18.71 pointsAhead today by 1.75 points
  5. T4Sky cover as the airport reports it: in its category more often than the NBMStorm Station -, the NBM -; off by - categories, the NBM -Not yet scored
  6. T5An honest band: 66 to 70 in 100 readings inside it68 in 100 for temperature; the NBM 54On target today
  7. T6Rain chance: more skill than the NBMskill 0.39 against 0.44, 1 to 6 hours aheadBehind today by 0.05
  8. T7Rain amount: a higher threat score than the NBM0.30 against 0.34 at 0.01 inchBehind today by 0.04
  9. T8The first six hours: closer than the NBM and than the last reading carried forward-Not yet scored

Every day scored

The NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield, scored on the same hours, which is the evidence the correction is tested on; how often the temperature forecast came within 5 F; and how many misses of more than 10 F each day had. The table holds every day; choose one for its own page.

Temperature, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Wind, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind, mph, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield01234Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Dew point, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point, F, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield0123Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14CorrectionNBM
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Sky cover, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover, points, each day scored from September 28, 2026 to October 14, 2026: the NBM and the Storm Station correction at every airfield010203040Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Temperature, hours within 5 F, the NBM and its correction at every airfield

The share of hours each temperature forecast was within 5 F, each day scored80%85%90%95%100%Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14NBMCorrection
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station correction

Misses of more than 10 F

Misses of more than 10 F each day scored05001,0001,500Sep 28Oct 2Oct 6Oct 10Oct 14Misses
Misses
Every day scored, over all hours ahead
DayHoursStorm Station, temperatureBlend, temperatureWithin 5 FStorm Station, windBlend, windRain skill, 1 to 6 hMisses over 10 FReadings that failed
October 14, 2026242.4 F2.6 F91 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.361,142133
October 13, 2026242.2 F2.4 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.321,229139
October 12, 2026242.2 F2.3 F92 in 1002.7 mph2.8 mph0.38871141
October 11, 2026242.3 F2.5 F92 in 1003.0 mph3.0 mph0.48581156
October 10, 2026242.4 F2.6 F89 in 1003.1 mph3.2 mph0.46889243
October 9, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.46746380
October 8, 2026242.1 F2.5 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.3 mph0.39575323
October 7, 2026242.2 F2.6 F94 in 1002.5 mph2.3 mph0.33659262
October 6, 2026242.0 F2.5 F95 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.34518302
October 5, 2026242.2 F2.5 F94 in 1002.6 mph2.5 mph0.41539303
October 4, 2026242.2 F2.5 F93 in 1002.3 mph2.4 mph0.34507244
October 3, 2026242.3 F2.4 F92 in 1002.3 mph2.5 mph0.24505246
October 2, 2026242.1 F2.3 F92 in 1002.4 mph2.6 mph0.39376219
October 1, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.6 mph0.44500169
September 30, 2026242.1 F2.3 F94 in 1002.4 mph2.5 mph0.44364191
September 29, 2026241.9 F2.3 F95 in 1002.5 mph2.5 mph0.38388154
September 28, 2026242.4 F2.4 F91 in 1002.4 mph2.4 mph-421171

October 1, 2026, in depth

How far ahead the forecast was made

A forecast made an hour ahead should come closer than one made a day ahead. Each point is the mean miss of the forecasts made that far ahead.

Temperature

Mean miss of each forecast of the temperature by how far ahead it was made, October 1, 202601231 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRCorrectionNBMNWS forecastStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Wind

Mean miss of each forecast of the wind by how far ahead it was made, October 1, 2026012341 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRCorrectionNWS forecastNBMStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Dew point

Mean miss of each forecast of the dew point by how far ahead it was made, October 1, 202602461 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hGFS with HRRRCorrectionStorm StationNBMNWS forecast
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Sky cover

Mean miss of each forecast of the sky cover by how far ahead it was made, October 1, 202601020301 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hNBMCorrectionGFS with HRRRNWS forecastStorm Station
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM) Storm Station lead National Weather Service forecast NOAA GFS with HRRR Storm Station correction

Which way each forecast missed

A bar to the right ran high, warm or strong; to the left, low, cool or light. A forecast that runs one way day after day is the easiest to correct, and the correction learns it.

Temperature

Which way each forecast of the temperature ran, on averagecoolwarmNBM0.2 F warmStorm Station0.4 F coolNWS forecast0.3 F coolGFS with HRRR0.5 F coolCorrection0.2 F warm

Wind

Which way each forecast of the wind ran, on averagelightstrongNBM0.5 mph strongStorm StationevenNWS forecast0.5 mph strongGFS with HRRR0.5 mph lightCorrection0.1 mph strong

Dew point

Which way each forecast of the dew point ran, on averagedrymoistNBM0.1 F moistStorm Station0.8 F dryNWS forecast0.1 F moistGFS with HRRR1.8 F dryCorrection0.3 F dry

Sky cover

Which way each forecast of the sky cover ran, on averageclearcloudyNBM10.4 points clearStorm Station2.8 points clearNWS forecast10.9 points clearGFS with HRRR5.5 points cloudyCorrection10.4 points clear

Closest

The 12 airfields the temperature forecast came closest at, of those with 12 hours or more
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
PASK Selawik AirportAK0.4 F0.1 F warm29-
KGRY-0.6 Feven100-
KSTF George M Bryan AirportMS0.6 F0.4 F warm21-
PAIW Wales AirportAK0.6 F0.1 F warm100-
KICL Schenck FieldIA0.7 F0.3 F cool38-
KVTP-0.7 F0.5 F warm100-
KAIO Atlantic Municipal AirportIA0.7 F0.2 F warm34-
KSPR-0.7 F0.1 F cool100-
PAWG Wrangell AirportAK0.7 Feven96-
KSVN Hunter Army Air FieldGA0.7 F0.2 F cool100-
KY50 Wautoma Municipal AirportWI0.7 Feven100-
KATP-0.7 F0.1 F warm67-

Furthest

The 12 airfields it missed most at, and who was wrong in its misses over 10 F
AirfieldStateMean missRanHoursMisses over 10 F, who was wrong
KO26 Lone Pine/Death Valley AirportCA13.7 F13.7 F warm54cannot be told 7, the station 4
KL35 Big Bear City AirportCA9.2 F8.7 F warm100-
KBIH Eastern Sierra Regional AirportCA7.7 F7.6 F warm100cannot be told 3
KMMH Mammoth Yosemite AirportCA7.7 F7.7 F warm100cannot be told 3
KBAN-7.3 F5.6 F warm70cannot be told 3
KRKR Robert S Kerr AirportOK7.2 F0.5 F warm100-
KEKN Elkins-Randolph County Regional AirportWV6.7 F4.5 F warm100the forecast, at this station 3
KHHW Stan Stamper Municipal AirportOK6.6 F5.9 F warm100-
KF00 Jones FieldTX6.5 F6.2 F warm100the forecast, at this station 1
KSJX Beaver Island AirportMI6.2 F4.8 F cool100-
K1IM-6.1 F5.3 F warm100-
K1NW-6.1 F3.9 F cool100the forecast, at this station 5

Why the large misses happened

Every miss of more than 10 F is looked at against the stations around it, to say whether the forecast was wrong or the instrument was.

  • The station24The reading failed its check against its neighbours: the station was wrong, not the forecast.
  • The forecast, across the area64Most of the stations around it were missed the same way.
  • The forecast, at this station362Its neighbours were forecast well: its ground, its siting or a boundary the forecast did not place.
  • Cannot be told50Too few stations stand near it to say which was wrong.
The 200 largest misses of October 1, 2026
AirfieldHourSaidReadOff byIts neighboursHours aheadWho was wrong
K7L207 UTC51 F26.6 F24.4 F high50.7 F1The station
KO2613 UTC64 F41.0 F23.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KO2608 UTC71 F48.2 F22.8 F high-2The station
KO2606 UTC74 F51.8 F22.2 F high-6The station
KO2607 UTC72 F50.0 F22.0 F high-1The station
KO2612 UTC66 F44.6 F21.4 F high-6Cannot be told
KO2605 UTC76 F55.4 F20.6 F high-5Cannot be told
KEKQ09 UTC64 F84.2 F20.2 F low61.8 F3The station
KTVL15 UTC54 F35.1 F18.9 F high44.2 F3The forecast, at this station
KTVL14 UTC50 F32.0 F18.0 F high39.1 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW23 UTC69 F86.0 F17.0 F low86.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KO2603 UTC79 F62.6 F16.4 F high-3The station
KO2604 UTC77 F60.8 F16.2 F high-4Cannot be told
KTVL16 UTC63 F46.9 F16.1 F high51.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW10 UTC70 F86.0 F16.0 F low80.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW14 UTC70 F86.0 F16.0 F low83.7 F2The forecast, at this station
KGVW22 UTC70 F86.0 F16.0 F low88.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KTVL13 UTC50 F34.0 F16.0 F high39.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KO2602 UTC82 F66.2 F15.8 F high-2Cannot be told
KGVW11 UTC69 F84.2 F15.2 F low79.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW12 UTC69 F84.2 F15.2 F low79.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW13 UTC69 F84.2 F15.2 F low80.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW05 UTC71 F86.0 F15.0 F low82.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW15 UTC71 F86.0 F15.0 F low86.3 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW21 UTC71 F86.0 F15.0 F low89.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KGWO21 UTC93 F78.1 F14.9 F high-3Cannot be told
KBDQ22 UTC90 F75.2 F14.8 F high79.0 F4The forecast, across the area
KCXW22 UTC90 F75.2 F14.8 F high85.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KBDQ23 UTC88 F73.4 F14.6 F high77.2 F5The forecast, across the area
KCCA22 UTC88 F73.4 F14.6 F high81.6 F4The forecast, across the area
KCXW23 UTC88 F73.4 F14.6 F high77.6 F5The forecast, across the area
KGVW09 UTC70 F84.2 F14.2 F low80.1 F3The forecast, at this station
KHYI18 UTC88 F73.9 F14.1 F high73.2 F6The forecast, across the area
KBAZ18 UTC87 F73.0 F14.0 F high73.7 F6The forecast, across the area
KBIH07 UTC62 F48.0 F14.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KFLP22 UTC86 F72.0 F14.0 F high73.9 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW03 UTC72 F86.0 F14.0 F low83.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KGVW04 UTC72 F86.0 F14.0 F low82.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW16 UTC72 F86.0 F14.0 F low88.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KGVW17 UTC72 F86.0 F14.0 F low89.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW18 UTC72 F86.0 F14.0 F low88.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW20 UTC72 F86.0 F14.0 F low89.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KRUE21 UTC87 F73.0 F14.0 F high80.2 F3The forecast, across the area
KTVL11 UTC50 F36.0 F14.0 F high40.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KBAN13 UTC46 F32.0 F14.0 F high-1Cannot be told
KBAN14 UTC46 F32.0 F14.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KTVL12 UTC49 F35.1 F13.9 F high41.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KCCA21 UTC89 F75.2 F13.8 F high85.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KT7418 UTC87 F73.4 F13.6 F high73.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KCFD21 UTC86 F72.5 F13.5 F high73.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KJXI21 UTC85 F71.6 F13.4 F high76.7 F3The forecast, at this station
K4O417 UTC83 F69.8 F13.2 F high83.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KGVW06 UTC71 F84.2 F13.2 F low82.6 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW07 UTC71 F84.2 F13.2 F low81.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KGVW08 UTC71 F84.2 F13.2 F low79.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KMMH14 UTC47 F33.8 F13.2 F high-2Cannot be told
KBAN17 UTC71 F57.9 F13.1 F high-5Cannot be told
KTXK21 UTC89 F75.9 F13.1 F high76.9 F3The forecast, at this station
KATT18 UTC86 F73.0 F13.0 F high72.8 F6The forecast, across the area
KATT19 UTC86 F73.0 F13.0 F high73.0 F7The forecast, across the area
KAUS18 UTC86 F73.0 F13.0 F high73.6 F6The forecast, across the area
KBDQ21 UTC90 F77.0 F13.0 F high91.6 F3The forecast, at this station
KBPK22 UTC86 F73.0 F13.0 F high72.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KCLL21 UTC86 F73.0 F13.0 F high74.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KDEQ18 UTC86 F73.0 F13.0 F high82.7 F6The forecast, at this station
KEDC18 UTC86 F73.0 F13.0 F high73.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVT00 UTC90 F77.0 F13.0 F high81.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KGVW19 UTC73 F86.0 F13.0 F low89.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KGWO22 UTC92 F79.0 F13.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KJVW18 UTC90 F77.0 F13.0 F high91.4 F6The station
KMWT20 UTC86 F73.0 F13.0 F high78.3 F2The forecast, across the area
KO2614 UTC63 F50.0 F13.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KRUE22 UTC86 F73.0 F13.0 F high76.2 F4The forecast, across the area
KTRL00 UTC90 F77.0 F13.0 F high82.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KTRM10 UTC77 F64.0 F13.0 F high67.0 F4The forecast, at this station
KTVL10 UTC50 F37.0 F13.0 F high43.6 F4The forecast, at this station
KVIH19 UTC75 F88.0 F13.0 F low79.2 F7The forecast, at this station
PADM14 UTC29 F16.0 F13.0 F high26.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KADF21 UTC91 F78.1 F12.9 F high85.6 F3The forecast, across the area
KADF22 UTC91 F78.1 F12.9 F high78.8 F4The forecast, across the area
KFLP23 UTC84 F71.1 F12.9 F high72.7 F5The forecast, at this station
KGTU18 UTC84 F71.1 F12.9 F high72.1 F6The forecast, at this station
KJXI22 UTC84 F71.1 F12.9 F high75.2 F4The forecast, at this station
KO2609 UTC70 F57.2 F12.8 F high-3Cannot be told
KTSP13 UTC59 F46.4 F12.6 F high53.3 F1The forecast, at this station
KCCA23 UTC86 F73.4 F12.6 F high75.0 F5The forecast, across the area
KLHB19 UTC86 F73.4 F12.6 F high85.0 F1The forecast, at this station
K4O418 UTC84 F71.6 F12.4 F high74.2 F6The forecast, at this station
KAXH17 UTC89 F76.6 F12.4 F high89.3 F5The forecast, at this station
KEDC20 UTC86 F73.6 F12.4 F high72.7 F8The forecast, across the area
KRWV21 UTC84 F71.6 F12.4 F high73.5 F3The forecast, at this station
KT7419 UTC84 F71.6 F12.4 F high73.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KMMH12 UTC48 F35.6 F12.4 F high-6Cannot be told
KGVW02 UTC72 F84.2 F12.2 F low83.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KRYW18 UTC82 F69.8 F12.2 F high70.8 F6The forecast, across the area
KBYS07 UTC74 F61.9 F12.1 F high-1Cannot be told
KEKN11 UTC59 F46.9 F12.1 F high51.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KEKN12 UTC59 F46.9 F12.1 F high51.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KLOL07 UTC61 F48.9 F12.1 F high-1Cannot be told
KMLC00 UTC88 F75.9 F12.1 F high81.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KMWT21 UTC86 F73.9 F12.1 F high75.8 F3The forecast, across the area
KRSW17 UTC86 F73.9 F12.1 F high80.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KTXK22 UTC88 F75.9 F12.1 F high73.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KVIH20 UTC75 F87.1 F12.1 F low75.0 F8The forecast, at this station
K1NW13 UTC42 F54.0 F12.0 F low50.8 F1The forecast, at this station
K6R319 UTC89 F77.0 F12.0 F high89.2 F1The forecast, at this station
K6R602 UTC82 F70.0 F12.0 F high-2Cannot be told
KATT20 UTC85 F73.0 F12.0 F high72.5 F8The forecast, across the area
KBIH04 UTC71 F59.0 F12.0 F high-4Cannot be told
KDEQ19 UTC87 F75.0 F12.0 F high81.1 F1The forecast, across the area
KDEW07 UTC48 F36.0 F12.0 F high44.2 F19The forecast, at this station
KDEW08 UTC48 F36.0 F12.0 F high43.2 F20The forecast, at this station
KEKN13 UTC64 F52.0 F12.0 F high58.5 F1The forecast, at this station
KGYB20 UTC85 F73.0 F12.0 F high73.9 F2The forecast, at this station
KHEZ22 UTC89 F77.0 F12.0 F high89.6 F4The station
KHOT22 UTC89 F77.0 F12.0 F high75.8 F4The forecast, across the area
KHQZ00 UTC89 F77.0 F12.0 F high82.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KHYI21 UTC85 F73.0 F12.0 F high73.6 F9The forecast, across the area
KJAS18 UTC89 F77.0 F12.0 F high90.1 F6The station
KMMH15 UTC53 F41.0 F12.0 F high-3Cannot be told
KMWT22 UTC85 F73.0 F12.0 F high72.7 F4The forecast, across the area
KNOG23 UTC87 F75.0 F12.0 F high80.5 F11The forecast, at this station
KOMK13 UTC42 F54.0 F12.0 F low51.0 F7Cannot be told
KOZS17 UTC74 F86.0 F12.0 F low80.8 F5The forecast, at this station
KRND19 UTC85 F73.0 F12.0 F high73.5 F7The forecast, across the area
KSAT18 UTC84 F72.0 F12.0 F high73.4 F6The forecast, at this station
KSAT19 UTC84 F72.0 F12.0 F high73.1 F7The forecast, across the area
KSAT20 UTC84 F72.0 F12.0 F high72.5 F8The forecast, across the area
KSGF16 UTC72 F84.0 F12.0 F low83.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KSSF19 UTC85 F73.0 F12.0 F high74.0 F7The forecast, across the area
KSSF20 UTC85 F73.0 F12.0 F high73.3 F8The forecast, across the area
KTRM11 UTC75 F63.0 F12.0 F high66.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KTSP07 UTC62 F50.0 F12.0 F high62.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KTVL09 UTC51 F39.0 F12.0 F high48.4 F3The forecast, at this station
PADM17 UTC30 F18.0 F12.0 F high26.0 F5The forecast, at this station
K11R21 UTC86 F74.1 F11.9 F high79.6 F3The forecast, at this station
K1NW20 UTC55 F66.9 F11.9 F low66.2 F20The forecast, at this station
K1NW23 UTC57 F68.9 F11.9 F low66.6 F5The forecast, at this station
KALI22 UTC90 F78.1 F11.9 F high85.6 F10The forecast, at this station
KBPK23 UTC83 F71.1 F11.9 F high72.0 F5The forecast, at this station
KGTU17 UTC83 F71.1 F11.9 F high72.4 F5The forecast, at this station
KHOT21 UTC90 F78.1 F11.9 F high79.3 F3The forecast, across the area
KHOU17 UTC90 F78.1 F11.9 F high89.2 F5The forecast, at this station
KIAH18 UTC90 F78.1 F11.9 F high89.0 F6The forecast, at this station
KNOG22 UTC90 F78.1 F11.9 F high85.4 F10The forecast, at this station
KPRX18 UTC81 F69.1 F11.9 F high70.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KSGF17 UTC73 F84.9 F11.9 F low82.5 F5The forecast, at this station
K1NW12 UTC44 F55.9 F11.9 F low52.5 F6The forecast, at this station
KBIH06 UTC65 F53.1 F11.9 F high-6Cannot be told
KDEW09 UTC47 F35.1 F11.9 F high42.2 F21The forecast, at this station
KRNM14 UTC65 F53.1 F11.9 F high59.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KTRM12 UTC74 F62.1 F11.9 F high65.4 F6The forecast, at this station
PADM15 UTC29 F17.1 F11.9 F high26.5 F3The forecast, at this station
K1NW22 UTC58 F69.8 F11.8 F low67.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KBEA22 UTC87 F75.2 F11.8 F high84.3 F4The forecast, at this station
KBKS21 UTC92 F80.2 F11.8 F high87.8 F3The forecast, at this station
KF0000 UTC87 F75.2 F11.8 F high79.8 F6The forecast, at this station
KHQZ01 UTC87 F75.2 F11.8 F high81.2 F7The forecast, at this station
KJVY07 UTC69 F57.2 F11.8 F high67.9 F19The forecast, at this station
KJVY08 UTC69 F57.2 F11.8 F high67.7 F20The station
KLUG06 UTC69 F57.2 F11.8 F high65.9 F18The forecast, at this station
K1MM08 UTC45 F56.7 F11.7 F low43.5 F2The station
K60R22 UTC86 F74.3 F11.7 F high77.2 F10The forecast, at this station
KEKS13 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high38.1 F1The forecast, at this station
KGZS06 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high65.8 F18The forecast, at this station
KI6707 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high65.4 F19The forecast, at this station
KLUG08 UTC67 F55.4 F11.6 F high64.1 F20The forecast, at this station
KSZT06 UTC49 F37.4 F11.6 F high45.4 F18The forecast, at this station
K6R318 UTC90 F78.4 F11.6 F high89.3 F6The forecast, at this station
KFYG21 UTC78 F89.6 F11.6 F low88.2 F9The forecast, at this station
KLHB20 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high73.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KPSN20 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high76.4 F2The forecast, at this station
KPSN21 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high74.4 F15The forecast, at this station
KRFI23 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high73.5 F5The forecast, at this station
KRWV20 UTC85 F73.4 F11.6 F high73.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KMKV19 UTC91 F79.5 F11.5 F high86.2 F1The forecast, at this station
KBKS19 UTC96 F84.6 F11.4 F high95.0 F1The forecast, at this station
KCFD18 UTC90 F78.6 F11.4 F high90.4 F6The station
KFYG19 UTC80 F91.4 F11.4 F low87.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KGOO15 UTC62 F73.4 F11.4 F low66.2 F3The forecast, at this station
KRWV22 UTC83 F71.6 F11.4 F high73.8 F4The forecast, at this station
KT3520 UTC83 F71.6 F11.4 F high73.3 F2The forecast, at this station
KT7420 UTC83 F71.6 F11.4 F high72.8 F2The forecast, at this station
KSZT09 UTC47 F35.6 F11.4 F high41.5 F21The forecast, at this station
K11R22 UTC84 F72.7 F11.3 F high74.4 F4The forecast, at this station
KJSO23 UTC84 F72.7 F11.3 F high72.6 F23The forecast, across the area
KT3519 UTC84 F72.7 F11.3 F high73.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KRYW19 UTC82 F70.7 F11.3 F high71.2 F7The forecast, across the area
K1MM19 UTC60 F71.2 F11.2 F low59.1 F1The station
K4O422 UTC81 F69.8 F11.2 F high73.1 F4The forecast, at this station
KBBG23 UTC81 F69.8 F11.2 F high69.8 F23The forecast, at this station
KBDQ20 UTC90 F78.8 F11.2 F high92.1 F2The station
KCHK19 UTC81 F69.8 F11.2 F high72.4 F1The forecast, at this station
KFWB21 UTC81 F69.8 F11.2 F high72.0 F21The forecast, at this station
KFWB22 UTC81 F69.8 F11.2 F high71.1 F22The forecast, at this station
KGVW01 UTC73 F84.2 F11.2 F low83.9 F1The forecast, at this station
KHUA10 UTC64 F75.2 F11.2 F low64.7 F4The forecast, at this station
KHYW15 UTC81 F69.8 F11.2 F high79.0 F3The forecast, at this station
KMZJ02 UTC64 F75.2 F11.2 F low76.0 F2The forecast, at this station
KOPL18 UTC90 F78.8 F11.2 F high89.3 F6The forecast, at this station

Which forecast leads

The Storm Station correction is scored beside the NBM every day, with only what was known before that day. It takes the lead for a figure only when the Diebold and Mariano test, over at least 14 days, finds it better with less than a 5 in 100 chance of luck. Sky cover must also be better in the category the airport reports, over 14 days of those from October 11. Until then the NBM leads.

  • Temperature NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.257
  • Dew point NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.05 F a day, chance of luck 0.056
  • Wind NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)17 days scored, gain 0.01 mph a day, chance of luck 0.576
  • Sky cover NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)16 days scored, gain 2.51 points a day, chance of luck 0.003

The full figures, October 1, 2026

Temperature

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.22.22.32.32.3+0.254%243,721
Storm Station correction2.32.32.32.42.3+0.268%243,721
National Weather Service forecast1.81.92.02.12.0-0.3-6,971
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.22.32.42.62.4-0.5-6,980
Storm Station lead1.81.91.92.11.9-0.4-6,971

Dew point

Mean miss, F, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.02.12.12.22.1+0.164%242,555
Storm Station correction2.12.22.32.42.3-0.367%242,555
National Weather Service forecast1.81.91.92.01.9+0.1-6,971
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.42.83.03.53.0-1.8-6,980
Storm Station lead1.61.82.02.31.9-0.8-6,971

Wind

Mean miss, mph, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)2.62.62.62.62.6+0.554%242,676
Storm Station correction2.72.72.72.72.7+0.170%242,676
National Weather Service forecast2.62.62.62.72.6+0.5-6,959
NOAA GFS with HRRR2.72.82.83.02.8-0.5-6,968
Storm Station lead2.42.42.42.52.5+0.0-6,959

Sky cover

Mean miss, %, by how far ahead the forecast was made
Forecast1 to 6 h7 to 12 h13 to 18 h19 to 25 hAllRanInside its bandHours
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)23.623.924.424.624.1-10.449%121,365
Storm Station correction23.623.924.424.624.1-10.449%121,365
National Weather Service forecast17.518.118.619.218.4-10.9-5,787
NOAA GFS with HRRR23.522.923.723.423.4+5.5-5,803
Storm Station lead17.716.916.616.717.0-2.8-5,794

Rain

The chance of rain in each hour is scored by the Brier score: the mean square of the chance less what happened, 0 when it did not rain and 1 when it did. Lower is better; skill compares it with always forecasting how often it rained. The amount is scored at 0.01 and 0.10 inch by the equitable threat score, which gives no credit for hits chance would have made.

ForecastBrier, 1 to 6 hBrier, 7 to 12 hBrier, 13 to 18 hBrier, 19 to 25 hSkill, 1 to 6 hThreat score, 0.01 inThreat score, 0.10 in
NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM)0.0440.0460.0480.0520.440.340.19
NOAA GFS with HRRR0.0520.0520.0550.0590.390.310.12
Storm Station lead0.0520.0520.0550.0590.390.300.17

Snow

The day’s new snow at every snow telemetry station, against the NBM’s 24 hour snow. A pillow’s rise counts as snow only when water came with it.

Stations scored
413
Where snow fell or was forecast
4
Mean miss, depth
1.4 in
Sensors set aside
0
New snow of at leastHitsMissesFalse alarmsThreat score
1 in013-0.00
3 in000-
6 in000-

How it is scored

What happened. For each hour, each airfield’s routine report from 15 minutes before the hour to 5 minutes after. Rain in the hour counts only where the station has a working gauge; a station without one has no zero to give.

The check. Each reading is compared with the stations within 60 miles and 2,000 ft of its height, their readings carried to its height. One further from the middle of them than four times their spread, and never less than 10 F, fails, and is neither scored nor learned from. With too few neighbours, the analysis of record is the second opinion.

The scores. The mean miss, and whether a forecast ran warm or cold. A forecast that gives its own spread is also scored on its band: an honest band holds about 68 in 100 readings. Within 5 F, 5 mph or 25 points of sky cover is the share of hours that came that close. Units are F, miles an hour and per cent of the sky.

The forecasts. NOAA National Blend of Models (NBM): NOAA’s statistical blend of many models, for every airfield, four cycles a day. Storm Station correction: The NBM with each station’s own habit taken out, learned the day after. National Weather Service forecast: Each forecast office’s gridded forecast (the National Digital Forecast Database), as the weather cards read it. NOAA GFS: Global Forecast System, NOAA’s global model, at the 70 airports. NOAA HRRR: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model, run every hour, at the 70 airports. NOAA NAM: North American Mesoscale model, NOAA’s 2 mile grid model over the lower 48, at the 70 airports. ECMWF IFS: Integrated Forecasting System, the European Centre’s global model, at the 70 airports. ECMWF AIFS: Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System, the European Centre’s AI model, at the 70 airports. NOAA GFS with HRRR: NOAA’s HRRR for the hours it reaches, laid over NOAA’s GFS, as one forecast, as the weather cards read it, at a panel of 70 airports. Storm Station lead: The engine’s own forecast from the NBM’s stations near each airport, as the cards print it; before 13 UTC Oct 3, the middle of the National Weather Service forecast and NOAA GFS with HRRR. NBM, at the 70 airports: The same NBM, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at, so the two compare the same places. Correction, at the 70 airports: The Storm Station correction, scored only at the 70 airports the lead is scored at.

The same figures, as data: /api/accuracy, and the developer page for every field.