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Hurricane Trudy

Hurricane Trudy has 105 mph winds and a pressure of 971 mb, centred near 14.3N 102.1W, moving toward the north-northwest at 7 mph, as of October 16, 03:00 UTC. Forecast to reach 145 mph, category 4 hurricane, by October 17, 12:00 UTC.

Chart of Hurricane Trudy: the track taken, the forecast track and the reach of its winds now120W115W110W105W100W95W90W85W5N10N15N20N25NBay of CampecheHurricane Trudy: tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or more, as far as they reach in each quadrant nowHurricane Trudy: winds of 58 mph or more, as far as they reach in each quadrant nowHurricane Trudy: hurricane force winds, 74 mph or more, as far as they reach in each quadrant nowOctober 13, 12:00 UTC, 9.5N 96.1WOctober 13, 15:00 UTC, 9.8N 96.5W, 35 mphOctober 13, 18:00 UTC, 10.3N 95.9WOctober 13, 21:00 UTC, 10.6N 96.5W, 40 mphOctober 14, 00:00 UTC, 11.0N 96.7WOctober 14, 03:00 UTC, 11.2N 97.0W, 45 mphOctober 14, 06:00 UTC, 10.8N 98.6WOctober 14, 09:00 UTC, 11.1N 99.0W, 50 mphOctober 14, 12:00 UTC, 11.3N 99.2WOctober 14, 15:00 UTC, 11.5N 99.5W, 60 mphOctober 14, 18:00 UTC, 11.7N 99.7WOctober 14, 21:00 UTC, 11.9N 100.0W, 65 mphOctober 15, 00:00 UTC, 12.1N 100.5WOctober 15, 03:00 UTC, 12.4N 100.8W, 70 mphOctober 15, 06:00 UTC, 12.6N 101.2WOctober 15, 09:00 UTC, 12.9N 101.6W, 75 mphOctober 15, 12:00 UTC, 12.9N 101.6WOctober 15, 15:00 UTC, 13.1N 101.6W, 90 mphOctober 15, 18:00 UTC, 13.5N 101.6WOctober 15, 21:00 UTC, 13.7N 101.7W, 90 mphOctober 16, 00:00 UTC, 14.1N 101.9WOctober 16, 03:00 UTC, 14.3N 102.1W, 105 mphForecast for October 16, 12:00 UTC: 15.0N 102.3W, 120 mph, category 3 hurricaneFri 12:00, 120 mphForecast for October 17, 00:00 UTC: 15.9N 102.8W, 140 mph, category 4 hurricaneSat 00:00, 140 mphForecast for October 17, 12:00 UTC: 17.1N 103.7W, 145 mph, category 4 hurricaneSat 12:00, 145 mphForecast for October 18, 00:00 UTC: 18.4N 104.8W, 130 mph, category 4 hurricaneSun 00:00, 130 mphForecast for October 18, 12:00 UTC: 19.7N 105.7W, 115 mph, category 3 hurricaneSun 12:00, 115 mphForecast for October 19, 00:00 UTC: 20.7N 106.4W, 100 mph, category 2 hurricaneMon 00:00, 100 mphForecast for October 20, 00:00 UTC: 21.0N 107.6W, 65 mph, tropical stormForecast for October 21, 00:00 UTC: 21.3N 108.8W, 60 mph, tropical stormWed 00:00, 60 mphTrudy
The track taken from its advisories, the forecast track to five days and the reach of its winds now, from advisory 11 of October 16, 03:00 UTC. Times are UTC.
Chart of Hurricane Trudy: the track taken, the forecast track and the reach of its winds now110W105W100W95W5N10N15N20N25NBay of CampecheHurricane Trudy: tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or more, as far as they reach in each quadrant nowHurricane Trudy: winds of 58 mph or more, as far as they reach in each quadrant nowHurricane Trudy: hurricane force winds, 74 mph or more, as far as they reach in each quadrant nowOctober 13, 12:00 UTC, 9.5N 96.1WOctober 13, 15:00 UTC, 9.8N 96.5W, 35 mphOctober 13, 18:00 UTC, 10.3N 95.9WOctober 13, 21:00 UTC, 10.6N 96.5W, 40 mphOctober 14, 00:00 UTC, 11.0N 96.7WOctober 14, 03:00 UTC, 11.2N 97.0W, 45 mphOctober 14, 06:00 UTC, 10.8N 98.6WOctober 14, 09:00 UTC, 11.1N 99.0W, 50 mphOctober 14, 12:00 UTC, 11.3N 99.2WOctober 14, 15:00 UTC, 11.5N 99.5W, 60 mphOctober 14, 18:00 UTC, 11.7N 99.7WOctober 14, 21:00 UTC, 11.9N 100.0W, 65 mphOctober 15, 00:00 UTC, 12.1N 100.5WOctober 15, 03:00 UTC, 12.4N 100.8W, 70 mphOctober 15, 06:00 UTC, 12.6N 101.2WOctober 15, 09:00 UTC, 12.9N 101.6W, 75 mphOctober 15, 12:00 UTC, 12.9N 101.6WOctober 15, 15:00 UTC, 13.1N 101.6W, 90 mphOctober 15, 18:00 UTC, 13.5N 101.6WOctober 15, 21:00 UTC, 13.7N 101.7W, 90 mphOctober 16, 00:00 UTC, 14.1N 101.9WOctober 16, 03:00 UTC, 14.3N 102.1W, 105 mphForecast for October 16, 12:00 UTC: 15.0N 102.3W, 120 mph, category 3 hurricaneFri 12:00, 120 mphForecast for October 17, 00:00 UTC: 15.9N 102.8W, 140 mph, category 4 hurricaneSat 00:00, 140 mphForecast for October 17, 12:00 UTC: 17.1N 103.7W, 145 mph, category 4 hurricaneSat 12:00, 145 mphForecast for October 18, 00:00 UTC: 18.4N 104.8W, 130 mph, category 4 hurricaneSun 00:00, 130 mphForecast for October 18, 12:00 UTC: 19.7N 105.7W, 115 mph, category 3 hurricaneSun 12:00, 115 mphForecast for October 19, 00:00 UTC: 20.7N 106.4W, 100 mph, category 2 hurricaneMon 00:00, 100 mphForecast for October 20, 00:00 UTC: 21.0N 107.6W, 65 mph, tropical stormForecast for October 21, 00:00 UTC: 21.3N 108.8W, 60 mph, tropical stormWed 00:00, 60 mphTrudy
The track taken from its advisories, the forecast track to five days and the reach of its winds now, from advisory 11 of October 16, 03:00 UTC. Times are UTC.
  • Depression, under 39 mph
  • Tropical storm, 39 to 73 mph
  • Category 1, 74 to 95
  • Category 2, 96 to 110
  • Category 3, 111 to 129
  • Category 4, 130 to 156
  • Category 5, 157 or more
  • Track taken
  • Forecast track
  • Tropical storm force winds now
  • Hurricane force winds now
Strength
Category 2 hurricane
Winds
105 mph, gusts 125 mph
Pressure
971 mb, 28.67 inHg
Moving
Toward the north-northwest at 7 mph
Centre
14.3N 102.1W, within 25 miles
Tropical storm force winds reach
105 miles from the centre
Hurricane force winds reach
25 miles from the centre
Advisory
Number 11, October 16, 03:00 UTC
Next advisory
October 16, 09:00 UTC

Watches and warnings

  • A Hurricane Watch is in effect for

    • The coast of Mexico north of Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for

    • The coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo southward to Zihuatanejo

In the hurricane center's words, from its public advisory of October 16, 02:46 UTC. Every watch and warning in force, county by county: Severe Alerts.

The forecast

The forecast of advisory 11, October 16, 03:00 UTC. Winds are the strongest sustained, in mph.
ValidCentreWindsStrengthNote
October 16, 12:00 UTC15.0N 102.3W120 mphCategory 3 hurricane-
October 17, 00:00 UTC15.9N 102.8W140 mphCategory 4 hurricane-
October 17, 12:00 UTC17.1N 103.7W145 mphCategory 4 hurricane-
October 18, 00:00 UTC18.4N 104.8W130 mphCategory 4 hurricane-
October 18, 12:00 UTC19.7N 105.7W115 mphCategory 3 hurricane-
October 19, 00:00 UTC20.7N 106.4W100 mphCategory 2 hurricane-
October 20, 00:00 UTC21.0N 107.6W65 mphTropical stormOutlook
October 21, 00:00 UTC21.3N 108.8W60 mphTropical stormOutlook

The forecast track is the most likely path of the centre. A storm's effects reach far beyond its centre, and the centre itself stays inside the track only about two times in three.

Where it went

Chart of Hurricane Trudy: the track it took, every place its advisories gave it coloured by its strength then, and each of the 11 official forecasts drawn faint from where it started120W115W110W105W100W95W90W85W5N10N15N20N25NOctober 13Trudy
The track Hurricane Trudy took, from its advisories, and each official forecast drawn faint from where it started. Point to a place for its time and winds.
Chart of Hurricane Trudy: the track it took, every place its advisories gave it coloured by its strength then, and each of the 11 official forecasts drawn faint from where it started110W105W100W95W5N10N15N20N25NOctober 13Trudy
The track Hurricane Trudy took, from its advisories, and each official forecast drawn faint from where it started. Point to a place for its time and winds.
  • Depression, under 39 mph
  • Tropical storm, 39 to 73 mph
  • Category 1, 74 to 95
  • Category 2, 96 to 110
  • Category 3, 111 to 129
  • Category 4, 130 to 156
  • Category 5, 157 or more
  • Track taken
  • Forecast track
  • Tropical storm force winds now
  • Hurricane force winds now
Landfall
-
Its centre crossed
-
Tropical storm force winds reached
-
Hurricane force winds reached
-
Strongest winds
105 mph, category 2, October 16, 03:00 UTC
Lowest pressure
971 mb, 28.67 inHg
Days
October 13 to 16, 2026
As a tropical or subtropical cyclone
2.8 days
Traveled
597 miles
Accumulated cyclone energy
3.4
Basin
Eastern Pacific
Advisories
12

Its strength, day by day

The strongest winds of Hurricane Trudy, in mph, at each place its advisories gave it, October 13 to 16, 2026, with the winds where each category begins020406080100120140160mphOctober 14October 15October 16StormCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
The strongest winds of Hurricane Trudy, in mph, at each place its advisories gave it, October 13 to 16, 2026, with the winds where each category begins04080120160mphOctober 14October 15October 16StormCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
The lowest pressure at the centre of Hurricane Trudy, in millibars, at each of its advisories, October 13 to 16, 2026. Lower is stronger.9609709809901,0001,0101,020mbOctober 14October 15October 16
The lowest pressure at the centre of Hurricane Trudy, in millibars, at each of its advisories, October 13 to 16, 2026. Lower is stronger.9609801,0001,020mbOctober 14October 15October 16

How the forecasts did

Every forecast of Hurricane Trudy scored against where it went: the hurricane center's official forecast, Storm Station's own, and NOAA's models, each by its own name.

Track error of every forecast of Hurricane Trudy by hours ahead, in miles: the mean distance from where each forecast put the centre to where the storm was. Lower is closer.050100150miles12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 hHAFS-BHAFS-AGEFSGFSStorm StationAIGFSOfficial forecast
Track error of every forecast of Hurricane Trudy by hours ahead, in miles: the mean distance from where each forecast put the centre to where the storm was. Lower is closer.050100150miles12 h36 h60 h120 hHAFS-BHAFS-AGEFSGFSStorm StationAIGFSOfficial forecast
Track error, miles
Forecast12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 h
Official forecast399307415333281---
Storm Station378506674722----
GFS378506754952----
GEFS418556824972----
AIGFS348306424392----
HAFS-A4987369741142----
HAFS-B4087569841212----

Track error: how far each forecast put the centre from where the storm was, in miles, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.

Against the official forecast, miles
Forecast12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 h
Storm Station37 / 35850 / 34667 / 50472 / 422----
GFS37 / 35850 / 34675 / 50495 / 422----
GEFS41 / 35855 / 34682 / 50497 / 422----
AIGFS34 / 35830 / 34642 / 50439 / 422----
HAFS-A49 / 35873 / 34697 / 504114 / 422----
HAFS-B40 / 35875 / 34698 / 504121 / 422----

On the same forecasts as the official one: each one's track error, then the official forecast's for the same storm, hour and hours ahead, in miles; the number of forecasts beneath.

Intensity error, mph
Forecast12 h24 h36 h48 h60 h72 h96 h120 h
Official forecast495775123171---
Storm Station138166284312----
GFS148216254262----
GEFS148246364452----
AIGFS128296404482----
HAFS-A128176284292----
HAFS-B158166294332----

Intensity error: how far each forecast's strongest winds were from the storm's, in mph, the mean over every forecast scored; the number of forecasts beneath each. Lower is closer.

How each is scored, as the hurricane center scores its own: against where its advisories put the storm at each six hours, and only while the storm was a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Each model is taken from its run six hours before, carried to the hour and set on the storm's centre and winds then, as the hurricane center does with its own early models, so every forecast here was there when the official one was issued. Storm Station's is made from those models, never from the official forecast.

The advisories

Every forecast advisory, newest first
AdvisoryIssuedAsCentreWindsPressureMoving
11October 16, 03:00 UTCHurricane Trudy14.3N 102.1W105 mph971 mbToward the north-northwest at 7 mph
10October 15, 21:00 UTCHurricane Trudy13.7N 101.7W90 mph978 mbToward the north-northwest at 6 mph
9October 15, 15:00 UTCHurricane Trudy13.1N 101.6W90 mph975 mbToward the north-northwest at 6 mph
8October 15, 09:00 UTCHurricane Trudy12.9N 101.6W75 mph989 mbToward the northwest at 9 mph
7October 15, 03:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy12.4N 100.8W70 mph994 mbToward the northwest at 8 mph
6October 14, 21:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy11.9N 100.0W65 mph997 mbToward the west-northwest at 9 mph
5October 14, 15:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy11.5N 99.5W60 mph998 mbToward the west-northwest at 13 mph
4October 14, 09:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy11.1N 99.0W50 mph1002 mbToward the west-northwest at 10 mph
3...CORRECTEDOctober 14, 03:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy11.2N 97.0W45 mph1004 mbToward the northwest at 10 mph
3October 14, 03:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy11.2N 97.0W45 mph1004 mbToward the northwest at 10 mph
2October 13, 21:00 UTCTropical Storm Trudy10.6N 96.5W40 mph1005 mbToward the northwest at 8 mph
1October 13, 15:00 UTCTropical Depression Twenty-One-E9.8N 96.5W35 mph1006 mbToward the northwest at 10 mph
Each public advisory's headline, newest first
AdvisoryIssuedHeadline
11October 16, 02:46 UTCTrudy Strengthens
10AOctober 15, 23:47 UTCTrudy Expected To Rapidly Intensify
10October 15, 20:49 UTCTrudy Expected To Rapidly Intensify
9AOctober 15, 17:39 UTCHurricane Hunter Aircraft Investigating Trudy
9October 15, 14:57 UTCTrudy Rapidly Intensifying
7October 15, 02:34 UTCTrudy Forecast To Rapidly Strengthen Over The Next Day Or So
6October 14, 20:45 UTCTrudy Continues To Strengthen
5October 14, 14:55 UTCTrudy Expected To Become A Hurricane Tonight

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